Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Polymarket price0.01Nolast trade · 83d agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
No live quote
DiscountMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Part of event: Will Solstice launch a token by ___ ? · will-solstice-launch-a-token-by

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.999

Best ask

1.000

Spread

0.001

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 07:49 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown.

Volume

Total volume

$155,012

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Solstice (https://x.com/solsticefi) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Solstice, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Solstice (https://x.com/solsticefi) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Solstice, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.

Market Trust Cardpolymarket24h public snapshot

will-solstice-launch-a-token-by

Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?

This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.

Discount
47/100

Measured-only score

41/100 from 3 measured pillars

Measured pillars alone read 6 points lower than the headline composite; the heuristic mix is pulling the rating up. Read the rating with that prior in mind.

Measured weight share 51%

Rating is about whether this market is strong enough to use as evidence, not whether the outcome will resolve yes or no.

Measurement certainty

Low

3 of 7 pillars measured, 3 modeled by fixed rules, 1 not assessed.

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

Mid price

96.9%

Spread

0.80%

Liquidity

$9k

Visible depth

$6k

Modeled depth at size

$233

Resolution risk

26.0%

Evidence status

This score is only as strong as the data behind it. The breakdown below shows which parts are measured and which are still estimated.

Measured

3

Directly derived from current source artifacts, such as market metadata, orderbook snapshots, or Coherence Signal context.

Heuristic

3

Estimated from our fixed scoring rules, not yet checked against markets that have resolved.

Not assessed

1

Inputs we have not yet measured for this market. A gap in our coverage, not a fact about the market.

Score waterfall

The composite reweights only scored pillars. Pending inputs are visible, but they contribute zero points until the evidence is joined.

Rounded composite

47

Coherence

raw weight 20.0%

normalized 22.7%

20 x 22.7% = 4.5 pts

Liquidity

raw weight 16.0%

normalized 18.2%

50 x 18.2% = 9.1 pts

Orderbook depth

raw weight 15.0%

normalized 17.0%

59 x 17.0% = 10.1 pts

Modeled depth at size

raw weight 13.0%

normalized 14.8%

17 x 14.8% = 2.5 pts

Participant quality

raw weight 12.0%

normalized 0.0%

not assessed

Manipulation risk

raw weight 12.0%

normalized 13.6%

78 x 13.6% = 10.6 pts

Resolution reliability

raw weight 12.0%

normalized 13.6%

74 x 13.6% = 10.1 pts

Unrounded contribution total 46.93 · displayed score rounds to 47

Pillar readings

Coherence

Measured

A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.

Measured · low reading, not a coverage gap

20
/100
  • Matched MENE cluster with 99.7pp raw tension and z=56.5.
  • This is a structural-coherence reading, not a forecast of the market outcome.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

cme_signal_report_full.json:matched_cluster

Liquidity

Measured

Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.

Measured · low reading, not a coverage gap

50
/100
  • Liquidity is $9k and historical volume is $72k.
  • The score is log-scaled so a market must be meaningfully liquid, not merely nonzero.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

Orderbook depth

Measured

Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.

Measured · low reading, not a coverage gap

59
/100
  • Full visible ladder depth is $6k; top-of-book depth is $653.
  • Yes-side bid/ask spread is 0.80pp.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

Modeled depth at size

Modeled estimate

Heuristic depth-at-size band from visible CLOB depth and gamma liquidity proxies. v0.1 does not measure executable fill against a real-size trade and the score is not a tradable capacity claim.

Modeled estimate · not a per-market measurement

~17
modeled
  • Modeled depth band at size is $233 based on visible CLOB depth and the gamma liquidity proxy.
  • vwap_fill_against_ladder is not yet wired into per-card output; the band is heuristic, not measured executable fill.
  • The card intentionally does not expose trade direction or executable trade construction.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

Participant quality

Not assessed

Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.

Not assessed · not yet measured for this market

n/a
not assessed
  • Wallet skill exists at the leaderboard/analyzer layer, but per-market participant joins are still pending.
  • This pillar is deliberately unscored so the composite does not imply informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.

Source refs

wallet_activity_snapshots:parser_pending

Manipulation risk

Modeled estimate

Heuristic only: v0.1 reads structural risk indicators (spread, volume, depth) and does not look at per-market wash trading or insider flow. A high score does not mean the market is measured manipulation-free; it means the structural indicators are not flagging.

Modeled estimate · not a per-market measurement

~78
modeled
  • v0.1 flags shallow or wide markets as easier to move, but does not claim to detect coordinated manipulation.
  • No per-market wash-cluster or insider-detector evidence is joined into v0.1; that input ships with the v0.2 manipulation rollup.
  • Future versions should incorporate wallet-cluster graphs, wash flags, and flow concentration.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

Resolution reliability

Modeled estimate

Heuristic v0.1 inversion of the CME resolution-risk score. Inputs are subjective wording, liquidity floor, time-to-resolution, and category keyword priors. The score is not calibrated against historical UMA dispute rates yet, so a high reading means the heuristic flags are absent, not that resolution has been measured reliable.

Modeled estimate · not a per-market measurement

~74
modeled
  • Max resolution risk input is 0.260.
  • Thresholds are MVP heuristics and must be re-audited before v0.2 validation claims.

Source refs

services/api/scripts/cme_v0_1/resolution_risk.py

gamma_snapshot.json:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xc5b108011e6e24e1dd4c07f96134e88bf75034dc16a6783a67a10d36a98e8bb8

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 50 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

3 measured · 3 modeled · 1 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceMeasuredlow readingweight 20.0

    1 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signal linked to this condition; 6 price-observation checkpoints recorded.

    • · full provenance cme signal linked
    • · signal price observations linked
    • · no observed checkpoint yet
    30+7.5
  • LiquidityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 15.0

    Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.

    • · top-of-book spread 0.3c
    • · spread is 40% of mid — heavy slippage on size
    • · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth 5pct usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    • · scorer version: M2
    85+15.9
  • DepthModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 15.0

    Effectively untradeable size; small orders only.

    • · min-side depth $28 within ±5c of mid
    • · bid $28 / ask $28
    • · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth 5pct usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    • · scorer version: M2
    15+2.8
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 15.0

    Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    55+10.3
  • Participant qualityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · high participant concentration
    • · high unknown flow share
    • · insufficient scored accounts
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity risk screenMeasuredlow readingweight 10.0

    Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.

    • · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
    • · 67% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
    • · flow events: 113
    • · distinct wallets: 3
    55+6.9
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Caveat: 1 pillar not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2025-11-26 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.