Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Polymarket price0.35Fenerbahçe SKlast trade · 2h agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
66%yes · live odds
DiscountMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
-0.5 pts 24h

Part of event: Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK - More Markets · ucl-lyo-fen-2026-08-26-more-markets

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.650

Best ask

0.660

Spread

1.5% of mid

1.00 pts

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 17:04 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$256,346

Total volume

$265,023

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

In the UEFA Champions League qualifying tie between Olympique Lyonnais and Fenerbahçe SK, with the deciding leg scheduled for August 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Olympique Lyonnais" if Olympique Lyonnais is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie, based on aggregate score across both legs, to the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. This market will resolve to "Fenerbahçe SK" if Fenerbahçe SK is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie to the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If either leg is postponed, this market will remain open until the tie has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the tie is canceled entirely and no team advances, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics published by the governing body or event organizers. If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially published final statistics made after market resolution will not be considered in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 48 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50.Show the full rules text

In the UEFA Champions League qualifying tie between Olympique Lyonnais and Fenerbahçe SK, with the deciding leg scheduled for August 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Olympique Lyonnais" if Olympique Lyonnais is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie, based on aggregate score across both legs, to the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. This market will resolve to "Fenerbahçe SK" if Fenerbahçe SK is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie to the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If either leg is postponed, this market will remain open until the tie has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the tie is canceled entirely and no team advances, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics published by the governing body or event organizers. If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially published final statistics made after market resolution will not be considered in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 48 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$250 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$1 proposer reward
Stated resolution source
https://www.uefa.com/

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to Advance

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 68 · Discount

Measurement certainty

Low

2 measured · 4 modeled · 0 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 20
    50+15.6
  • ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 1.0c
    • · spread: spread is 2% of mid, tight relative to price
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    75+18.8
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+17.5
  • Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0

    5/10 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 100%; top-account flow share 99%; net directional flow net buy 100%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high participant concentration
    • · unknown or low sample flow present
    no scoreno contrib
  • Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0

    One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.

    • · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 13
    • · distinct wallets: 10
    • · wash round trips: 0
    75+9.4
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-08-18 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.