Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
36%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 1 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
+2.5 pts 24h

Part of a mutually exclusive multi-outcome group (Polymarket neg-risk)

Part of event: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share? · mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-cdu-vote-share

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.350

Best ask

0.360

Spread

2.8% of mid

1.00 pts

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 03:10 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$10,084

Total volume

$15,311

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Show the full rules text

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24
Proposer bond
$500 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$5 proposer reward

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 48 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

1 measured · 3 modeled · 2 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 21
    50+17.9
  • ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 1.0c
    • · spread: spread is 3% of mid, tight relative to price
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    15+4.3
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+20.0
  • Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    No participant flow rollup materialized yet.

    • · participant flow pending
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0

    No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.

    • · missing input
    not assessednot assessed
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hash missing
    • · source watermarks healthy
    85+6.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-08-20 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.