Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
88%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 1 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
+11.0 pts 24h

Part of event: Lester Martinez vs. Luka Plantic · boxing-martin-planti-2026-08-30

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.760

Best ask

1.000

Spread

27% of mid

24.00 pts

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 08:08 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$12,502

Total volume

$12,561

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market will resolve to "Lester Martinez" if Lester Martinez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luka Plantic, scheduled for August 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Luka Plantic" if Luka Plantic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled before it begins, or postponed beyond September 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from governing body.Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to "Lester Martinez" if Lester Martinez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luka Plantic, scheduled for August 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Luka Plantic" if Luka Plantic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled before it begins, or postponed beyond September 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from governing body.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$500 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$4 proposer reward
Stated resolution source
https://www.espn.com/boxing/

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Lester Martinez vs. Luka Plantic

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 51 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

1 measured · 2 modeled · 3 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 10
    50+25.0
  • ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
    • · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
    • · spread: visible $100 ladder slippage 24.7pp
    20not assessed
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+28.0
  • Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · high participant concentration
    • · high unknown flow share
    • · insufficient scored accounts
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0

    Screen indicators flagged strongly. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.

    • · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
    • · 50% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
    • · flow events: 9
    • · distinct wallets: 2
    55not assessed
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+10.0

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 50.0.

Caveat: 3 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-08-25 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.