Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 60 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 3 modeled · 1 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · CME signal window: 7 days
- · recent full provenance signals: 13
50+15.6 - ExecutabilityMeasuredlow readingweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 1.9c
- · spread: spread is 21% of mid, heavy slippage on size
- · spread: depth approximated from a probability-point band and split evenly per side; a per-side breakdown is not yet available
45+11.3 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · high participant concentration
- · high unknown flow share
- · insufficient scored accounts
not assessed - Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0
One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.
- · top-3 wallets control 84% of notional flow
- · flow events: 11
- · distinct wallets: 10
- · wash round trips: 0
75+9.4 - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0 of 100.0; the remaining 20.0 is unmeasured.
Caveat: 1 pillar not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See Researcher