Part of a mutually exclusive multi-outcome group (Polymarket neg-risk)
Part of event: Rugby's Greatest Rivalry: South Africa vs. New Zealand · rurgr-rsa-nzl-2026-08-29
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.001
Best ask
0.005
Spread
133% of mid
0.40 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 06:59 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$18,823
Total volume
$20,699
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market refers to the Rugby's Greatest Rivalry match between South Africa and New Zealand, scheduled for August 29 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve Yes if New Zealand is leading after 80 minutes of regulation play, including stoppage time. Otherwise, it will resolve No. Extra time and penalty kicks do not count. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open for the rescheduled fixture. If the match is canceled, abandoned without an official regulation-time result, or delayed more than 7 days without beginning, this market will resolve No. Resolution will be based on official World Rugby results. If official results have not been published within 24 hours after the match concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market refers to the Rugby's Greatest Rivalry match between South Africa and New Zealand, scheduled for August 29 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve Yes if New Zealand is leading after 80 minutes of regulation play, including stoppage time. Otherwise, it will resolve No. Extra time and penalty kicks do not count. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open for the rescheduled fixture. If the match is canceled, abandoned without an official regulation-time result, or delayed more than 7 days without beginning, this market will resolve No. Resolution will be based on official World Rugby results. If official results have not been published within 24 hours after the match concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
- Resolved by (UMA adapter)
- 0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24
- Proposer bond
- $250 proposer bond
- Proposer reward
- $1 proposer reward
- Stated resolution source
- https://www.world.rugby/
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Will New Zealand win in regulation?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 53 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 15
50+17.9 - ExecutabilityMeasuredlow readingweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 0.4c
- · spread: spread is 0% of mid, tight relative to price
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
15+4.3 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · high participant concentration
- · insufficient scored accounts
- · insufficient total accounts
not assessednot assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.
- · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
- · flow events: 1
- · distinct wallets: 1
- · wash round trips: 0
75not assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+7.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-08-22 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.