Part of event: Ethereum Up or Down on September 4? · ethereum-up-or-down-on-september-4-2026
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best ask
0.001
Spread
0.001
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 17:01 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$61,139
Total volume
$64,274
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 3 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 4 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Ethereum Up or Down on September 4?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 65 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
1 measured · 2 modeled · 3 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · CME signal window: 7 days
- · recent full provenance signals: 15
50+25.0 - ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
- · spread: the order book was visible on one side only
- · spread: no direct bid-ask spread was available
- · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0pp
65 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+28.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · high participant concentration
- · high unknown flow share
not assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.
- · top-3 wallets control 98% of notional flow
- · flow events: 5
- · distinct wallets: 5
- · wash round trips: 0
75 - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+10.0
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 50.0 of 100.0; the remaining 50.0 is unmeasured.
Caveat: 3 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-09-02 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.