Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market refers to the tennis match between Iga Swiatek and Nadia Podoroska in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Nadia Podoroska. This market will resolve to 'Nadia Podoroska' if Nadia Podoroska advances against Iga Swiatek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market refers to the tennis match between Iga Swiatek and Nadia Podoroska in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Nadia Podoroska. This market will resolve to 'Nadia Podoroska' if Nadia Podoroska advances against Iga Swiatek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Nadia Podoroska
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 48 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
1 measured · 3 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · CME signal window: 7 days
- · recent full provenance signals: 13
50+17.9 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 0.4c
- · spread: depth approximated from a probability-point band and split evenly per side; a per-side breakdown is not yet available
- · spread: scorer version M2
15+4.3 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
- · participant flow pending
not assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
not assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hash missing
- · source watermarks healthy
85+6.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0 of 100.0; the remaining 30.0 is unmeasured.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See Researcher