Part of event: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros · mlb-cws-hou-2026-09-02
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.270
Best ask
0.300
Spread
11% of mid
3.00 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 02:13 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$339,718
Total volume
$339,718
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros, scheduled for September 2 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros, scheduled for September 2 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
- Resolved by (UMA adapter)
- 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
- Proposer bond
- $250 proposer bond
- Proposer reward
- $1 proposer reward
- Stated resolution source
- https://www.mlb.com/
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 69 · Discount
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 4 modeled · 0 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · CME signal window: 7 days
- · recent full provenance signals: 13
50+15.6 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 1.0c
- · spread: spread is 2% of mid, tight relative to price
- · spread: depth approximated from a probability-point band and split evenly per side; a per-side breakdown is not yet available
75+18.8 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0
5/10 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 67%; top-account flow share 32%; net directional flow net buy 99%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · unknown or low sample flow present
no scoreno contrib - Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0
No screen indicator flagged in the sampled window. Not a check that the market is free of coordinated trading.
- · top-3 wallets control 63% of notional flow
- · flow events: 16
- · distinct wallets: 10
- · wash round trips: 0
85+10.6 - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0 of 100.0; the remaining 20.0 is unmeasured.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-08-27 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.