Part of a mutually exclusive multi-outcome group (Polymarket neg-risk)
Part of event: Next Regional Board Chair of Västerbotten? · next-regional-board-chair-of-vasterbotten-20260810084555417
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.840
Best ask
0.850
Spread
1.2% of mid
1.00 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 09:09 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$11,044
Total volume
$17,927
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
Regional elections to elect the Regional Council of Västerbotten, Sweden are scheduled to take place on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chair of the Regional Board of Region Västerbotten following the 2026 Swedish Regional elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected by the relevant regional council as Chair of the Regional Board. Any interim or caretaker Chair will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chair takes office by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Sweden and Region Västerbotten; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
Regional elections to elect the Regional Council of Västerbotten, Sweden are scheduled to take place on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Chair of the Regional Board of Region Västerbotten following the 2026 Swedish Regional elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected by the relevant regional council as Chair of the Regional Board. Any interim or caretaker Chair will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chair takes office by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Sweden and Region Västerbotten; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
- Resolved by (UMA adapter)
- 0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24
- Proposer bond
- $500 proposer bond
- Proposer reward
- $5 proposer reward
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 48 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
1 measured · 3 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · CME signal window: 7 days
- · recent full provenance signals: 13
50+17.9 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 1.0c
- · spread: depth approximated from a probability-point band and split evenly per side; a per-side breakdown is not yet available
- · spread: scorer version M2
15+4.3 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
- · participant flow pending
not assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
not assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hash missing
- · source watermarks healthy
85+6.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0 of 100.0; the remaining 30.0 is unmeasured.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-08-10 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.