Part of a mutually exclusive multi-outcome group (Polymarket neg-risk)
Part of event: What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? · what-will-be-the-top-us-netflix-movie-this-week-20260901
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.813
Best ask
0.947
Spread
15% of mid
13.40 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 20:26 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$21,972
Total volume
$28,402
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
- Resolved by (UMA adapter)
- 0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24
- Proposer bond
- $500 proposer bond
- Proposer reward
- $5 proposer reward
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 53 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
1 measured · 3 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 11
50+17.9 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 4.1c
- · spread: spread is 74% of mid, heavy slippage on size
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
15+4.3 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · high participant concentration
- · high unknown flow share
not assessednot assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.
- · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
- · flow events: 2
- · distinct wallets: 2
- · wash round trips: 0
75not assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+7.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-08-26 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.