Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
44%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 2 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
-1.0 pts 24h

Part of event: Fuse Energy FDV above ___ one day after launch? · fuse-energy-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.090

Best ask

0.790

Spread

0.700

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 23:50 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown.

Volume

Total volume

$89

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fuse's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fuse will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fuse (https://x.com/fuseenergy) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fuse's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fuse will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fuse (https://x.com/fuseenergy) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$500 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$5 proposer reward

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Fuse FDV above $800M one day after launch?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 40 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceMeasuredlow readingweight 25.0

    6 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 35 price-observation checkpoints recorded.

    • · full provenance cme signal linked
    • · signal price observations linked
    • · no observed checkpoint yet
    30+10.7
  • ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 66.0c
    • · spread: spread is 150% of mid, heavy slippage on size
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    10+2.9
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+20.0
  • Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    No participant flow rollup materialized yet.

    • · participant flow pending
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0

    No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.

    • · missing input
    not assessednot assessed
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hash missing
    • · source watermarks healthy
    85+6.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-03-31 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.