Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Polymarket price0.88Nolast trade · 13m agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
10%yes · live odds
Do not citeMeasured defect: elevated unknown participant flowMeasurement certainty Moderate
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
-1.5 pts 24h

Part of event: Anthropic IPO by __? · anthropic-ipo-by

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.090

Best ask

0.110

Spread

0.020

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 22:09 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown.

Volume

24h volume

$12,876

Total volume

$346,101

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$500 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$5 proposer reward

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 51 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Moderate

4 measured · 2 modeled · 0 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceMeasuredlow readingweight 25.0

    2 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 11 price-observation checkpoints recorded.

    • · full provenance cme signal linked
    • · signal price observations linked
    • · no observed checkpoint yet
    30+9.4
  • ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 2.0c
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    • · spread: scorer_version:M2
    45+11.3
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+17.5
  • Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0

    5/13 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 47%; top-account flow share 31%; net directional flow unknown. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high unknown flow share
    • · supplied rollup used after current window below floor
    no scoreno contrib
  • Integrity risk screenMeasuredlow readingweight 10.0

    Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.

    • · top-3 wallets control 72% of notional flow
    • · 64% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
    • · flow events: 60
    • · distinct wallets: 14
    55+6.9
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-06-01 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.