Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Polymarket price0.89Yeslast trade · 2h agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
89%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 2 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
+0.5 pts 24h

Part of event: Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...? · will-netanyahu-visit-new-york-city-byptptpt-20260722053445708

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.880

Best ask

0.900

Spread

0.020

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 20:07 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown.

Volume

24h volume

$1,663

Total volume

$62,697

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island. Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify. Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island. Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify. Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$500 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$4 proposer reward

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 45 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

2 measured · 2 modeled · 2 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceMeasuredlow readingweight 25.0

    3 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 17 price-observation checkpoints recorded.

    • · full provenance cme signal linked
    • · signal price observations linked
    • · no observed checkpoint yet
    30+10.7
  • ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 1.0c
    • · spread: spread is 1% of mid, tight relative to price
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    15+4.3
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+20.0
  • Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high participant concentration
    • · insufficient scored accounts
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0

    Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.

    • · top-3 wallets control 99% of notional flow
    • · 25% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
    • · flow events: 6
    • · distinct wallets: 4
    67not assessed
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+7.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-07-22 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.010 · as stated by Polymarket.