Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Polymarket price0.69Miguel Damaslast trade · 35m agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
100%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 3 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
+55.5 pts 24h

Part of event: Porto: Miguel Damas vs Dimitar Kuzmanov · atp-damas-kuzmano-2026-09-03

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.999

Best ask

1.000

Spread

0.1% of mid

0.10 pts

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 15:04 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$737,447

Total volume

$737,492

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market refers to the tennis match between Miguel Damas and Dimitar Kuzmanov in the Porto, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Damas' if Miguel Damas advances against Dimitar Kuzmanov. This market will resolve to 'Dimitar Kuzmanov' if Dimitar Kuzmanov advances against Miguel Damas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show the full rules text

This market refers to the tennis match between Miguel Damas and Dimitar Kuzmanov in the Porto, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Damas' if Miguel Damas advances against Dimitar Kuzmanov. This market will resolve to 'Dimitar Kuzmanov' if Dimitar Kuzmanov advances against Miguel Damas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$250 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$1 proposer reward
UMA resolution status
proposed
Stated resolution source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Porto: Miguel Damas vs Dimitar Kuzmanov

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 50 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

3 measured · 3 modeled · 0 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · CME signal window: 7 days
    • · recent full provenance signals: 15
    50+15.6
  • ExecutabilityMeasuredlow readingweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 10.0c
    • · spread: spread is 37% of mid, heavy slippage on size
    • · spread: depth approximated from a probability-point band and split evenly per side; a per-side breakdown is not yet available
    10+2.5
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+17.5
  • Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0

    15/36 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 98%; top-account flow share 94%; net directional flow net sell 12%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · current account score join
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high participant concentration
    no scoreno contrib
  • Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0

    One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.

    • · 1 possible wash round-trip detected
    • · top-3 wallets control 97% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 46
    • · distinct wallets: 36
    65+8.1
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    27 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0 of 100.0; the remaining 20.0 is unmeasured.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-09-01 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.