Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Polymarket price0.96Tomas Etcheverrylast trade · 54m agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
No live quote
Do not citeUnder-measured: 2 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Part of event: US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley · atp-etcheve-fearnle-2026-09-02

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.999

Best ask

1.000

Spread

0.1% of mid

0.10 pts

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 23:24 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$377,414

Total volume

$379,233

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Jacob Fearnley in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Tomas Etcheverry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show the full rules text

This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Jacob Fearnley in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Jacob Fearnley. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Tomas Etcheverry. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 66 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

2 measured · 3 modeled · 1 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · CME signal window: 7 days
    • · recent full provenance signals: 13
    50+20.8
  • ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability takes the worse of spread and depth
    • · spread: the order book was visible on one side only
    • · spread: no direct bid-ask spread was available
    • · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0.31pp
    65
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+23.3
  • Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0

    7/14 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 56%; top-account flow share 22%; net directional flow net buy 70%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · current account score join
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · unknown or low sample flow present
    no scoreno contrib
  • Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0

    No screen indicator flagged in the sampled window. Not a check that the market is free of coordinated trading.

    • · top-3 wallets control 53% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 16
    • · distinct wallets: 14
    • · wash round trips: 0
    85+14.2
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+8.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 60.0 of 100.0; the remaining 40.0 is unmeasured.

Caveat: 1 pillar not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-08-31 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.