Research
Pre-registered empirical research on prediction-market skill, calibration, concentration, and position sizing. Every paper is reproducible against a frozen cohort and links to its raw data or computation.
- Edge Score Methodology V1: a composite skill measure for prediction-market tradersPDF
A composite skill measure fit on 8,656 Polymarket wallets. Posture plus conviction plus discipline with frozen OLS coefficients, fold-local refit, and a Fama-French bootstrap null (p < 0.0001 on 10,000 permutations).
- 10,000 Polymarket wallets scored. Calibration barely predicts profit.
A calibration audit of the full Polymarket profit leaderboard. 8,656 wallets, 582,921 resolved positions. Spearman r = +0.148 across the full sample; the top 1% by absolute PnL captures 36.2% of signed profit. Sizing and concentration dominate.
- Testing the insider-trading claim on Polymarket with Taleb-proof methods
A calibration audit of the top 100 Polymarket profit wallets. The worst-calibrated quartile earns 2.02x more than the best. Spearman r = +0.42, stable under outlier removal. Eight wallets placed the same bet in an eight-day window.
Method-explainer notes ship on a rolling Monday cadence. New papers appear above as they publish.