Market Trust diligence packet
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Too much of the trading came from wallets we cannot yet score, so participant quality is uncertain.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Market quality
45 / 100
Interval 22-51
Evidence confidence
medium
66 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
77bfc81701...
row hash verified
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: participant quality elevated unknown flow. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: participant quality elevated unknown flow.
How to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: participant quality elevated unknown flow.
- Clear hard cap: Participant quality is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
How the score adds upWhy this verdict
Why this rating
Composite 45 · Do not cite
- Coherencemeasuredweight 25.0
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full provenance cme signal linked
- · signal price observations linked
- · no observed checkpoint yet
30+9.4 - Executabilitypendingweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
- · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
- · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0.35pp
65no contrib - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant qualitymeasuredweight 20.0
13/76 accounts scored; scored notional share 41%; Wilson-LB coverage factor 0.19 (not yet calibrated).
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · high unknown flow share
- · low edge flow present
0no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
- · top-3 wallets control 73% of notional flow
- · 98% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- · flow events: 1000
- · distinct wallets: 76
55+6.9 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Market identityWhat is being rated
Venue
polymarket
condition 0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d...
Category
Tech
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf:2026-06-13
market_id: a533dadb-d998-44d8-a6b0-49674ebce553
venue_market_id: 0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf
resolution_source: 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Audit chainReceipt and verification
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 77bfc81701e133fc1bd8da6102f7b7327fc49d5a9565b706ea7829ff73546142
previous_row_hash: a301e8fdc208821d0cd319ba6ba9ee73e1ceb0dce07dc4521931b7e194d66000
source_artifact_hashes: ec9ee77bbbc37b8c12689c94276d4de437bb763ef312812cbc4dc02f6eba1ca9, 09dcbb5d1980d2ce9aae32fb53d872d75840d34edec99bdc7e60c68caeca1499
Verdict hashImmutable verdict archive
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: f1c5419c6bd3be62e08d0a7870e8a802fe487d1f1d158cd13a9670e3e69caed3
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0xfacf82cdf9eeea5d4c0a450acf939bbeab9fe307b5e53191a59171d12072adbf/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Participant and integrity screenWho shaped the price
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
40.7%
13 scored accounts
Unknown flow
59.3%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
76
public accounts observed
Top flow share
29%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Market Fitness — pre-trade diligence (experimental)
3 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 3 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth and slippage at size is a Researcher feature.
The resolution-reliability, manipulation, and basis-risk reads below are open. To see the fill cost at $100 / $1k / $10k and the executability detail, upgrade to Researcher.
Depth durability
insufficient data
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-06-12T21:45:46.732+00:00
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic executability pillar value (no current orderbook spread or depth input).
Caveats: gated detail requires researcher
Spread and price impact
insufficient data
insufficient data
At-size depth and slippage detail is a Researcher feature. Upgrade at /pricing to see fill cost at size.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Missing input: The stored card has no current orderbook spread or modeled price-impact input.
Caveats: gated detail requires researcher
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
70 / 100 (descriptive)
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed. Resolution rule text is stored on the card.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Concentration exposure
measured
29%
Top account flow share 29%; unknown flow share 59.3%; scored notional share 40.7%. Flags: high unknown flow share, low edge flow cluster, low edge flow present, moderate participant concentration, unknown or low sample flow present.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Caveats: concentration diagnostic, not a manipulation finding and not person-level identity resolution; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Source freshness windowIngest status
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-06-12T21:45:46.732Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
137ms
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
137ms
oldest ingest watermark
Validation stateCanary vs v1
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Top caveatsWhat travels with the score
- Hard cap: participant quality elevated unknown flow.
- Hard cap: Participant quality is measured, but unknown flow remains material.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 98% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- artifact hashes present
Before stable v1Validation requirements
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
External contextNon-scoring provenance
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 25 · measured
30 / 100
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Executability
weight 20 · pending
65 / 100
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
Resolution reliability
weight 20 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · measured
0 / 100
13/76 accounts scored; scored notional share 41%; Wilson-LB coverage factor 0.19 (not yet calibrated).
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · measured
55 / 100
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Coherence blockLinked-market consistency
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Score
30
measured evidence
Source refs
5
linked-market or CME artifacts
full provenance cme signal linked signal price observations linked no observed checkpoint yet
Robustness blockSensitivity and drivers
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
39-56
score range
Weight perturbation
43-47
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Executability is pending, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant quality scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Integrity screen scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.