Polymarket price0.99Seattle Marinerslast trade · 38m agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
0%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 3 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.
-52.4 pts 24h

Part of event: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners · mlb-phi-sea-2026-08-24

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best ask

0.001

Spread

0.001

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 04:37 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$360,023

Total volume

$360,574

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 24 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Show the full rules text

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 24 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$250 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$1 proposer reward
UMA resolution status
proposed
Stated resolution source
https://www.mlb.com/

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 53 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

3 measured · 3 modeled · 0 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 23
    50+15.6
  • ExecutabilityMeasuredlow readingweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 1.5c
    • · spread: spread is 67% of mid, heavy slippage on size
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    15+3.8
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+17.5
  • Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0

    5/14 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 85%; top-account flow share 81%; net directional flow net sell 72%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high participant concentration
    • · unknown or low sample flow present
    no scoreno contrib
  • Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0

    One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.

    • · top-3 wallets control 92% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 16
    • · distinct wallets: 14
    • · wash round trips: 0
    75+9.4
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-08-18 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.