Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 74 · Discount
- Coherenceheuristicweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 171
50+15.6 - Executabilitymeasuredweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · spread: spread is 0% of mid, tight relative to price
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
95+23.8 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant flowmeasuredweight 20.0
8/33 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 50%; top-account flow share 24%; net directional flow net buy 31%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · score joined as of card time not trade time
n/ano contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
- · top-3 wallets control 59% of notional flow
- · flow events: 45
- · distinct wallets: 33
- · wash round trips: 0
85+10.6 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
7 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See Researcher