Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
Archived read. This Market Trust snapshot is from 2026-07-30 (Market Trust snapshot is 11.2d ago), outside the daily freshness window. Treat it as archived evidence, not a current reading, until this market is refreshed.
Polymarket price1.00Yeslast trade · 12d agoFrom Convexly's own collectors; not a quote.
No live quote
Do not citeUnder-measured: 3 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Part of a mutually exclusive multi-outcome group (Polymarket neg-risk)

Part of event: Fed Decision in July? · fed-decision-in-july-181

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.999

Best ask

1.000

Spread

0.001

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 07:36 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown.

Volume

Total volume

$40,497,086

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Show the full rules text

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 66 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

3 measured · 2 modeled · 1 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 138
    50+20.8
  • ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
    • · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
    • · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0pp
    65not assessed
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+23.3
  • Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0

    297/1889 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 48%; top-account flow share 13%; net directional flow net buy 18%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · current account score join
    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high unknown flow share
    no scoreno contrib
  • Integrity risk screenMeasuredweight 10.0

    Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.

    • · 85 possible wash round-trips detected
    • · 34% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
    • · flow events: 6531
    • · distinct wallets: 1889
    82+13.7
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+8.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 60.0.

Caveat: 1 pillar not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-03-19 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.