Part of event: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners · mlb-chc-sea-2026-08-23
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.999
Best ask
1.000
Spread
0.1% of mid
0.10 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 02:48 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$591,320
Total volume
$592,119
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 23 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for August 23 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 66 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
2 measured · 3 modeled · 1 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 22
50+20.8 - ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
- · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
- · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0pp
65not assessed - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+23.3 - Participant flowMeasuredreported without a scoreweight 20.0
11/28 accounts identifiable; identity coverage 44%; top-account flow share 33%; net directional flow net sell 30%. Descriptive participant flow only; not a skill or smart-money signal.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · edge score composite descriptive not skill
- · high unknown flow share
no scoreno contrib - Integrity-risk screenModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 10.0
No screen indicator flagged in the sampled window. Not a check that the market is free of coordinated trading.
- · top-3 wallets control 65% of notional flow
- · flow events: 34
- · distinct wallets: 28
- · wash round trips: 0
85+14.2 - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+8.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 60.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-08-17 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.