Part of event: Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage · cs2-hotu-blackp-2026-08-24
Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Top of book
Best bid
0.999
Best ask
1.000
Spread
0.1% of mid
0.10 pts
As reported by Polymarket's public API at 15:11 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.
Volume
24h volume
$32,761
Total volume
$32,761
Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.
Resolution rules
Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between HOTU and Black Phoenix in the Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win Map 2 against Black Phoenix. This market will resolve to "Black Phoenix" if Black Phoenix win Map 2 against HOTU. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 24, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.Show the full rules textHide the full rules text
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between HOTU and Black Phoenix in the Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win Map 2 against Black Phoenix. This market will resolve to "Black Phoenix" if Black Phoenix win Map 2 against HOTU. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 24, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Resolution mechanics
Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.
- Resolved by (UMA adapter)
- 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
- Proposer bond
- $250 proposer bond
- Proposer reward
- $2 proposer reward
- UMA resolution status
- proposed
- Stated resolution source
- https://hltv.org
Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winner
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 48 · Do not cite
Measurement certainty
Low
1 measured · 3 modeled · 2 not assessed
Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.
- CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 23
50+17.9 - ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 3.0c
- · spread: spread is 4% of mid, tight relative to price
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
15+4.3 - Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0 - Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0
No participant flow rollup materialized yet.
- · participant flow pending
not assessednot assessed - Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
not assessednot assessed - Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hash missing
- · source watermarks healthy
85+6.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See ResearcherMarket opened 2026-08-24 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.