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Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 53 · Do not cite

2 measured1 heuristic3 pending
  • Coherencemeasuredweight 25.0

    2 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 11 price-observation checkpoints recorded.

    • · full provenance cme signal linked
    • · signal price observations linked
    • · no observed checkpoint yet
    30+15.0
  • Executabilitypendingweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
    • · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
    • · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 4.68pp
    40no contrib
  • Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+28.0
  • Participant flowpendingweight 20.0

    Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · high participant concentration
    • · high unknown flow share
    • · insufficient scored accounts
    n/ano contrib
  • Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0

    Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.

    • · top-3 wallets control 99% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 7
    • · distinct wallets: 6
    • · wash round trips: 0
    75no contrib
  • Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+10.0

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 50.0.

Caveat: 3 pillars pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher