No live quote
Do not citeUnder-measured: 1 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Part of a mutually exclusive multi-outcome group (Polymarket neg-risk)

Part of event: Dutch Grand Prix: Driver Winner · f1-dutch-grand-prix-winner-2026-08-23

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best ask

0.001

Spread

0.001

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 01:59 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$37,384

Total volume

$46,347

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled for Aug 23, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Aug 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.Show the full rules text

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled for Aug 23, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Aug 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Automatic resolution: Polymarket states this market resolves through its sports-oracle auto-resolution path rather than through the UMA proposer flow.

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 55 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

1 measured · 2 modeled · 3 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 22
    50+25.0
  • ExecutabilityNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
    • · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
    • · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 9.74pp
    25not assessed
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+28.0
  • Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.

    • · edge score composite descriptive not skill
    • · high participant concentration
    • · insufficient scored accounts
    • · insufficient total accounts
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0

    One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.

    • · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 3
    • · distinct wallets: 3
    • · wash round trips: 0
    75not assessed
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+10.0

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 50.0.

Caveat: 3 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-08-18 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.