Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.
Why this rating
Why this rating
Composite 49 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 25.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no linked cme signal in window
- · absence of signal not proof of coherence
- · cme signal window days: 7
- · recent full provenance signals: 176
50+15.6 - Executabilitypendingweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: one_sided_orderbook_boundary
- · spread: direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
- · spread: visible $1k ladder slippage 0pp
65no contrib - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5 - Participant qualitymeasuredweight 20.0
36/145 accounts scored; scored notional share 74%; Wilson-LB coverage factor 0.58 (not yet calibrated).
- · below publishable sample floor
- · current account score join
- · high participant concentration
- · low edge flow present
0no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
- · 8 possible wash round-trips detected
- · top-3 wallets control 76% of notional flow
- · 98% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- · flow events: 1000
45+5.6 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
Structural coherence read
The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.
See Researcher