Market TrustClaim ledgerDiligence packet
0%yes · live odds
Do not citeUnder-measured: 1 of 6 pillarsMeasurement certainty Low
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Part of event: Who will Trump meet with in August? · who-will-trump-meet-with-in-august-20260731154151454

Market structure and 24h change as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Top of book

Best bid

0.001

Best ask

0.002

Spread

67% of mid

0.10 pts

As reported by Polymarket's public API at 07:08 UTC; top of book, not full depth; per-side depth not shown. The spread is shown against the midpoint of the two quotes above, which is arithmetic on the venue's figures, not a figure the venue reports.

Volume

24h volume

$35,117

Total volume

$56,304

Volume as reported by Polymarket's public API.

Resolution rules

Rules as stated by Polymarket, reproduced verbatim. Convexly has not independently reviewed them and does not endorse them; the rating's resolution-reliability pillar treats rule text as present but not independently reviewed.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Show the full rules text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution mechanics

Resolution parameters as stated by Polymarket.

Resolved by (UMA adapter)
0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Proposer bond
$500 proposer bond
Proposer reward
$5 proposer reward

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August 2026?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 53 · Do not cite

Measurement certainty

Low

1 measured · 3 modeled · 2 not assessed

Certainty reflects how much of this market we measured, not how good the market is.

  • CoherenceModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 22
    50+17.9
  • ExecutabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 0.1c
    • · spread: spread is 67% of mid, heavy slippage on size
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    15+4.3
  • Resolution reliabilityModeled estimatefixed rules, not a per-market measurementweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+20.0
  • Participant flowNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 20.0

    Participant flow inputs exist but do not meet identity-coverage floors; descriptive only.

    • · below publishable sample floor
    • · high participant concentration
    • · high unknown flow share
    • · insufficient scored accounts
    not assessednot assessed
  • Integrity-risk screenNot assessednot yet measured for this marketweight 10.0

    One or more screen indicators flagged at a low level. A reason to look, not a finding about anyone.

    • · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
    • · flow events: 2
    • · distinct wallets: 2
    • · wash round trips: 0
    75not assessed
  • Audit completenessMeasuredweight 5.0

    3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hashes present
    • · source watermarks healthy
    100+7.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars not assessed yet; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher

Market opened 2026-07-31 · minimum order size 5 shares · price tick size 0.001 · as stated by Polymarket.