100%yes · live odds
Do not cite
Odds via Polymarket public API. Verdict is an experimental market-quality diagnostic, not advice.

Market Trust diagnostic · v0.2 candidate

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Why this rating

Composite 48 · Do not cite

2 measured2 heuristic2 pending
  • Coherenceheuristicweight 25.0

    No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.

    • · no linked cme signal in window
    • · absence of signal not proof of coherence
    • · cme signal window days: 7
    • · recent full provenance signals: 171
    50+17.9
  • Executabilitymeasuredweight 20.0

    Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.

    • · executability worse of spread depth
    • · spread: top-of-book spread 0.1c
    • · spread: spread is 0% of mid, tight relative to price
    • · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
    15+4.3
  • Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0

    Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.

    • · resolution metadata present manual review pending
    70+20.0
  • Participant flowpendingweight 20.0

    No participant flow rollup materialized yet.

    • · participant flow pending
    n/ano contrib
  • Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0

    No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.

    • · missing input
    n/ano contrib
  • Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0

    5 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.

    • · artifact hash missing
    • · source watermarks healthy
    85+6.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.

Structural coherence read

The Coherent Markets Engine checks this market's pricing for structural inconsistencies against related markets. Whether a current signal exists, and its construction, is included with Researcher.

See Researcher