Comparison

Convexly vs Nansen for prediction markets

Different tools for different jobs. Nansen is broad on-chain wallet intelligence across many chains. Convexly is a statistical audit layer for one narrow question: does a prediction-market wallet's record separate from chance?

Side by side

DimensionNansenConvexly
Primary jobBroad on-chain intelligence: token flows, labeled wallets, market dashboards across many chainsStatistical audit of prediction-market wallet skill: does a record separate from chance
CoverageMany chains and asset types; a large labeled-wallet universePrediction markets, primarily Polymarket (cross-venue only via the published V1-M paper)
What a wallet score meansLabels and rankings that summarize observed on-chain behaviorA four-state statistical read (skilled / not separable from chance / insufficient / flagged), each state with a frozen threshold
UncertaintyNot the product's framingEvery skill read carries a BCa bootstrap 95 percent interval; a point estimate is never published alone
Multiple-testing correctionNot the product's framingBenjamini-Hochberg FDR correction across every cohort screen (primary q = 0.10, with q = 0.05 / 0.20 sensitivity in enterprise work)
Chance baselineNot the product's framingSize-matched negative control: 500 seeded random cohorts run through the identical test in enterprise cohort audits
Negative resultsNot part of the productPublished, including against its own cohort: 0 of 35 testable top-50 wallets cleared the corrected bar (2026-06-09 scan)
Best forFollowing on-chain activity broadly, across chains and tokensDeciding whether a prediction-market record is evidence of skill before acting on it

"Not the product's framing" is descriptive, not a criticism: a broad intelligence platform and a narrow audit layer are optimizing different things.

What Nansen does well

Nansen's strength is breadth and labeling. It covers many chains and asset types, maintains a large labeled-wallet universe, and turns raw on-chain flow into dashboards and alerts a researcher can act on quickly. If your question is "what is happening on-chain right now, and which known wallets are involved", that is the job Nansen is built for, and prediction markets are a small corner of it.

What Convexly does differently

Convexly is not trying to watch the whole chain. It applies audit-grade statistics to one domain: prediction-market wallet skill, primarily on Polymarket (cross-venue claims only via the published V1-M paper). Concretely:

  • A four-state skill read (skilled / not separable from chance / insufficient / flagged) instead of a raw PnL rank, with every state gated by a frozen threshold.
  • Every read carries a BCa bootstrap 95 percent interval; a point estimate is never published on its own.
  • Cohort screens apply a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery-rate correction, and enterprise cohort work is anchored by a size-matched negative control of 500 seeded random draws.
  • Nulls are published, including against Convexly's own board: in the frozen 2026-06-09 scan, 0 of the 35 testable wallets in the published top-50 cohort cleared the corrected bar (full table).
  • Methods are frozen and version-controlled, and follow-up test designs are filed in public registries before the analyses run, as a standing practice documented on the research index.

Which one for which job

Following broad on-chain activity, token flows, or labeled wallets across chains: Nansen. Deciding whether a specific prediction-market record is evidence of skill before you act on it, including before you copy it: Convexly. The two are complementary, and the honest answer for many desks is both.

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Frequently asked

Is Convexly a replacement for Nansen?
No. They answer different questions. Nansen answers 'what is happening on-chain, and which labeled wallets are doing it' across many chains and asset types. Convexly answers 'does this prediction-market wallet's resolved record separate from chance, after correcting for how many wallets you looked at'. Many researchers would use both.
What does Nansen do better than Convexly?
Breadth. Nansen covers many chains, token flows, and a large labeled-wallet universe, with real-time dashboards and alerts across the whole on-chain economy. Convexly does not attempt any of that: its scope is prediction-market wallet skill, primarily on Polymarket, plus the market-quality surfaces built on the same statistics.
What does Convexly do that a wallet-labeling platform does not?
Statistical audit machinery: every skill read carries a bootstrap 95 percent interval; cohort screens apply a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery-rate correction; enterprise cohort work is anchored by a size-matched negative control (500 seeded random draws); and nulls are published, including against Convexly's own leaderboard, where 0 of the 35 testable wallets in the published top-50 cohort cleared the corrected bar in the frozen 2026-06-09 scan.
Which one should I use before following a trader?
Whichever venue the trader is on, the same discipline applies: check whether the record separates from luck before you copy it. For Polymarket wallets, Convexly's free analyzer returns a four-state read (skilled, not separable from chance, insufficient, or flagged) with its interval, rather than a raw profit rank. A past read is not a forecast, and no read is an instruction to act.

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