Comparison

Convexly vs Polymarket Analytics

Different tools for different jobs. Polymarket Analytics is the dashboard specialist for what is happening on the venue. Convexly is a statistical audit layer for one narrow question: does a wallet's resolved record separate from chance?

Side by side

DimensionPolymarket AnalyticsConvexly
Primary jobActivity dashboards for Polymarket: volumes, markets, holders, trader leaderboardsStatistical audit of wallet skill: does a resolved record separate from chance
RecognitionWidely cited in media coverage of Polymarket activityPublishes open methodology papers and frozen per-wallet scan artifacts
What a trader ranking meansObserved activity and results, summarized at dashboard speedA four-state statistical read (skilled / not separable from chance / insufficient / flagged), each state with a frozen threshold
UncertaintyNot the product's framingEvery skill read carries a BCa bootstrap 95 percent interval; a point estimate is never published alone
Multiple-testing correctionNot the product's framingBenjamini-Hochberg FDR correction across every cohort screen (primary q = 0.10)
Chance baselineNot the product's framingSize-matched negative control (500 seeded random draws) in enterprise cohort audits
Negative resultsNot part of the productPublished, including against its own cohort: 0 of 35 testable top-50 wallets cleared the corrected bar (2026-06-09 scan)
Best forWatching Polymarket activity broadly and quicklyDeciding whether a specific record is evidence of skill before acting on it

"Not the product's framing" is descriptive, not a criticism: a venue-wide activity dashboard and a narrow audit layer are optimizing different things.

What Polymarket Analytics does well

Polymarket Analytics is the reference dashboard for the venue. It surfaces market volumes, activity breakdowns, and trader leaderboards at breadth and speed, and it has earned regular citations in media coverage of Polymarket. If your question is "what is happening on Polymarket right now, and who is doing it", that is the job it is built for and it does it well.

What Convexly does differently

Convexly starts where the dashboard stops: once you can see a trader's record, is that record evidence of anything? Concretely:

  • A four-state skill read (skilled / not separable from chance / insufficient / flagged) instead of a raw PnL rank, with every state gated by a frozen threshold: at least 30 resolved positions, a concentration screen at 60 percent of net result, and a BCa 95 percent lower bound above zero for the positive state.
  • A Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery-rate correction on every cohort screen, because ranking many wallets at once manufactures skilled-looking records at a predictable chance rate.
  • Size-matched negative controls (500 seeded random draws) anchoring enterprise cohort audits against chance.
  • Published nulls, including against Convexly's own board: 0 of the 35 testable wallets in the published top-50 cohort cleared the corrected bar in the frozen 2026-06-09 scan (full per-wallet table).
  • Frozen, version-controlled methods, with follow-up test designs filed in public registries before the analyses run, as a standing practice documented on the research index.

Which one for which job

Watching the venue, sizing markets, tracking activity: Polymarket Analytics. Deciding whether a specific record separates from luck before you act on it, including before you copy it: Convexly. Many readers will keep the dashboard open in one tab and run the wallet through the analyzer in the other, which is exactly how the two fit together.

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Frequently asked

Is Convexly a replacement for Polymarket Analytics?
No. Polymarket Analytics answers 'what is happening on Polymarket': volumes, market activity, holder breakdowns, trader leaderboards. Convexly answers a narrower statistical question: does a specific wallet's resolved record separate from chance, after correcting for how many wallets were screened. A researcher tracking the venue would reasonably use both.
What does Polymarket Analytics do better than Convexly?
Activity coverage. It is the dashboard specialist for the venue: market-level and trader-level activity views, at breadth and speed, in a form journalists and researchers cite regularly in coverage of Polymarket. Convexly does not compete on dashboard breadth; its scope is the statistical skill read and the audit machinery around it.
Why does a leaderboard need a statistical audit layer at all?
Because ranking wallets by profit implicitly runs one test per wallet, and chance alone makes some records look skilled: about one in forty at a 2.5 percent one-sided threshold. In Convexly's frozen 2026-06-09 scan of its own published top-50 Polymarket cohort, 0 of the 35 testable wallets cleared the FDR-corrected bar, and the one uncorrected positive (about 0.9 expected by chance across 35 tests) did not survive correction. Raw ranks cannot show any of that.
Which one should I use before acting on a trader's record?
Use an activity dashboard to see what the trader did; use Convexly to see whether the resolved record separates from luck before you copy it. The free analyzer returns a four-state read (skilled, not separable from chance, insufficient, or flagged) with a bootstrap 95 percent interval. A past read is not a forecast, and no read is an instruction to act.

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