Polymarket wallet record

0xb69e...12f5

PolymarketLive analyzer

Methodology: V1-M Edge Score paper · methods · changelog · audit chain

Independent read

A methodology-cited read of this wallet's public on-chain Polymarket record. The statistics below are descriptive facts about the resolved history.

Sample quality: UsableEnough resolved positions for a directional read; category-level splits may still be thin.

Diagnostics on public on-chain behavior, not a trade-following recommendation or a per-wallet forward forecast. Not investment advice.

Frozen research snapshot

On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 65 resolved positions with a win rate of 84.6% and a realized edge over entry prices of +6.1 probability points, 95% CI [-1.3, +14.9] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance.

One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill.

The frozen snapshot does not carry the single-event concentration screen that the live analyzer applies; the realized-edge read above (when present) is the concentration-screened read.

Snapshot 2026-04-25 · screen computed 2026-06-01 · registry sha256 5478f7c47b8296b2... · frozen methodology hash 39f07abfcabb84e9...

Frequently asked questions

What does the resolved Polymarket record show for wallet 0xb69e...12f5?
On the frozen 2026-04-25 research snapshot (sub-daily crypto up/down micro-markets excluded), this wallet had 65 resolved positions with a win rate of 84.6% and a realized edge over entry prices of +6.1 probability points, 95% CI [-1.3, +14.9] (BCa bootstrap); the 95% interval includes zero, so on that snapshot the edge is not separable from chance. These are descriptive statistics of a frozen past snapshot, not a forecast.
Is wallet 0xb69e...12f5 skilled or just lucky on Polymarket?
One of 178 of 3871 wallets (each with at least 30 resolved positions on that snapshot) that cleared a Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery screen at q = 0.1 for positive realized edge over entry prices; expected false discoveries among the cleared set are at most 17.8. This is in-sample skill-vs-luck separation on a frozen snapshot, not validated forward skill. Not investment advice.
Is this page a forecast or a recommendation to trade like this wallet?
No. Convexly publishes diagnostics on public on-chain behavior. Demonstrated past skill is not a forecast, the statistics on this page are retrospective and in-sample, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to mirror this wallet's positions.

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