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Positive-PnL Polymarket wallets ranked by Edge Score V3b, a descriptive behavioral composite of calibration, conviction, and discipline. It describes the resolved record, not a forecast of future returns. Paste your wallet at the analyzer to compare against the cohort.

Calibration Wallets

Updated todayRanked from a frozen 50-wallet fit; 37 currently clear the positive-PnL gate. Next refresh 06:00 UTC.

Edge Score V3b (snapshot 2026-07-01) · descriptive behavioral composite

Wallets ranked

clear the positive-PnL gate

Top Edge Score

98.4

Median Edge Score

54.7

Reference cohort

frozen fit

Showing 37 wallets ranked by Edge Score V3b. This view includes thin-sample wallets so researchers can inspect the ranking output among positive-PnL wallets. Use the sample-quality badge on each row before treating a rank as meaningful.

All wallets 30+ positions 50+ positions 100+ positions

Venue footprint snapshot:Polymarket live 1,000

Leaderboard caveat

Leaderboard rank explains why a wallet scored highly in the historical cohort. It is not a recommendation to mirror trades or assume future wallet performance.

How to read this board. Edge Score is a descriptive behavioral composite of how a wallet positioned on its resolved public history (calibration, conviction, and discipline). It describes the past record; out-of-sample forward-skill validation is still pending, so a rank is not a forecast of future returns.

Each row also carries a skill read (skilled / not separable from luck / thin sample / too concentrated) with the wallet's realized-edge sign and 95% interval, so a high Edge Score never stands alone. A "too concentrated" marker is a flag on the read, not a verdict. The board Edge Score is a snapshot from 2026-07-01; a live analyzer read may differ as new positions resolve, so a board score and a live analyzer score read as snapshot-vs-live, not a contradiction.

This board is shown for wallets with positive realized PnL. 13 cohort wallets are held back from the public view because realized PnL is not positive or is unavailable.

Skilled Wallet #1politics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 20 positions · $9.5K PnL

Realized edge -0.6pp (95% CI [-13.5, +13.5])

98.4

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #2politics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 20 positions · $17.8K PnL

Realized edge +0.2pp (95% CI [-19.3, +20.3])

96.9

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #3Developing sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 23 positions · $67.4K PnL

Realized edge +2.6pp (95% CI [-18.3, +21.5])

96.1

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #4politics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 22 positions · $1.8K PnL

Realized edge +0.2pp (95% CI [-11.8, +12.0])

95.1

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #5geopolitics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 24 positions · $26.3K PnL

Realized edge +2.9pp (95% CI [-11.5, +16.7])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #6politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 39 positions · $8.9K PnL

Realized edge -0.4pp (95% CI [-9.7, +8.2])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #7geopolitics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 25 positions · $26.4K PnL

Realized edge +3.3pp (95% CI [-9.2, +15.3])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #8politics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 26 positions · $14.3K PnL

Realized edge +0.5pp (95% CI [-10.0, +11.0])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #9crypto· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 30 positions · $93.8K PnL

Realized edge -1.9pp (95% CI [-13.5, +10.0])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #10geopolitics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 29 positions · $27.4K PnL

Realized edge +2.9pp (95% CI [-5.4, +11.9])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #11politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 36 positions · $41.7K PnL

Realized edge +0.1pp (95% CI [-8.1, +8.4])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #12Developing sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 23 positions · $77.6K PnL

Realized edge +0.6pp (95% CI [-14.0, +16.8])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #13Usable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 67 positions · $57.7K PnL

Realized edge -0.2pp (95% CI [-11.2, +11.0])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #14crypto· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 31 positions · $19.2K PnL

Realized edge +2.6pp (95% CI [-14.1, +19.1])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #15tech· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 26 positions · $8.5K PnL

Realized edge -4.3pp (95% CI [-18.6, +8.3])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #16geopolitics· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 27 positions · $35.3K PnL

Realized edge +2.8pp (95% CI [-5.7, +11.7])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #17Developing sampleThin sample

0x••••…•••• · 23 positions · $39.5K PnL

Realized edge +5.0pp (95% CI [-6.4, +16.8])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #18sports· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 28 positions · $116.9K PnL

Realized edge +3.5pp (95% CI [-7.7, +18.9])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #19Usable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 34 positions · $32.2K PnL

Realized edge +0.4pp (95% CI [-14.7, +16.2])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #20politics· 2vDeveloping sampleThin sample

0x••••…•••• · 27 positions · $9.7K PnL

Realized edge -1.5pp (95% CI [-12.9, +8.9])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #21politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 61 positions · $476.9K PnL

Realized edge +0.0pp (95% CI [-11.2, +11.2])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #22crypto· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 37 positions · $95.2K PnL

Realized edge +1.7pp (95% CI [-11.7, +14.9])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #23crypto· 2vDeveloping sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 27 positions · $596.2K PnL

Realized edge +2.5pp (95% CI [-5.6, +12.4])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #24Usable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 37 positions · $139.7K PnL

Realized edge +2.4pp (95% CI [-8.1, +12.8])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #25geopolitics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 70 positions · $145.5K PnL

Realized edge +10.2pp (95% CI [-1.5, +21.2])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #26politics· 2vDeveloping sampleThin sample

0x••••…•••• · 28 positions · $339.5K PnL

Realized edge +10.3pp (95% CI [-4.4, +25.0])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #27politics· 2vUsable sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 49 positions · $146.6K PnL

Realized edge +1.1pp (95% CI [-6.2, +8.1])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #28politics· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 41 positions · $51.8K PnL

Realized edge +2.6pp (95% CI [-9.6, +14.5])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #29crypto· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 36 positions · $65.6K PnL

Realized edge -0.1pp (95% CI [-8.5, +8.5])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #30crypto· 2vStrong sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 218 positions · $1.6M PnL

Realized edge -1.2pp (95% CI [-5.9, +3.7])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #31crypto· 2vStrong sampleToo concentratedtoo concentrated

0x••••…•••• · 139 positions · $955.6K PnL

Realized edge +0.2pp (95% CI [-5.3, +5.4])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #32geopolitics· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 79 positions · $487.2K PnL

Realized edge +0.5pp (95% CI [-6.8, +8.3])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #33sports· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 82 positions · $86.8K PnL

Realized edge +0.6pp (95% CI [-8.9, +9.9])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #34politics· 2vUsable sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 72 positions · $71.6K PnL

Realized edge +2.8pp (95% CI [-4.2, +10.2])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #35politics· 2vStrong sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 124 positions · $132.1K PnL

Realized edge -3.1pp (95% CI [-8.6, +3.1])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #36tech· 2vStrong sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 111 positions · $172.9K PnL

Realized edge -0.5pp (95% CI [-4.3, +3.1])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Skilled Wallet #37geopolitics· 2vStrong sampleNot separable from luck

0x••••…•••• · 193 positions · $348.7K PnL

Realized edge +2.5pp (95% CI [-2.5, +7.7])

Edge · 2026-07-01

Edge Score vs same-window PnL (in-sample diagnostic)

Monthly rolling rank correlation between Edge Score V3b and signed-log PnL computed on the SAME in-window positions. This is an in-sample contemporaneous diagnostic, not a forward test: the score and the realized PnL share the same positions and the dominant input (conviction) is PnL-derived, so it overstates predictive skill. The honest forward result is the ex-ante per-wallet temporal holdout (out-of-sample Spearman +0.11, 95% CI [0.05, 0.18], which did not clear the +0.30 threshold it was filed against). Brier-only baseline shown for contrast.

median ρ = 0.375

26 monthly windows

Edge Score V3b ρBrier-only baseline

Edge Score distribution

How the published cohort distributes across the 0-100 scale. Median + p25/p75 marked inline.

median = 54.6

n = 50

Wallets per binMedianp25-p75 band

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