Market Trust methodologyClaim ledger
Market Trust Card v0.1polymarket24h public snapshot

which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

This market has enough quality concerns that the raw probability should be discounted unless corroborated by other evidence.

Discount
45/100

Rating is about whether this market is currently citable as evidence, not whether the outcome will resolve yes or no.

Mid price

96.0%

Spread

0.90%

Liquidity

$24k

Depth

$701

Pillar readings

Coherence

Measured

A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.

20
/100
  • Matched MENE cluster with 81.4pp raw tension and z=77.5.
  • This is a structural-coherence reading, not a forecast of the market outcome.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

cme_signal_report_full.json:matched_cluster

Liquidity

Measured

Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.

60
/100
  • Liquidity is $24k and historical volume is $68k.
  • The score is log-scaled so a market must be meaningfully liquid, not merely nonzero.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

Orderbook depth

Measured

Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.

29
/100
  • Full visible ladder depth is $701; top-of-book depth is $15.
  • Yes-side bid/ask spread is 0.90pp.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

Capacity

Heuristic

Conservative v0.1 capacity band from visible depth; not an execution recommendation.

22
/100
  • Estimated public capacity band is $56 based on visible CLOB depth.
  • The card intentionally does not expose trade direction or executable trade construction.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

Participant quality

Pending

Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.

50
/100
  • Wallet skill exists at the leaderboard/analyzer layer, but per-market participant joins are still pending.
  • This neutral 50/100 prevents the public card from implying informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.

Source refs

wallet_activity_snapshots:parser_pending

Manipulation risk

Heuristic

Conservative placeholder based on spread, volume, and depth until wallet-cluster analysis ships.

68
/100
  • v0.1 flags shallow or wide markets as easier to move, but does not claim to detect coordinated manipulation.
  • Future versions should incorporate wallet-cluster graphs, wash flags, and flow concentration.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

Resolution reliability

Heuristic

CME resolution-risk heuristic, surfaced per market for the first time.

80
/100
  • Max resolution risk input is 0.200.
  • Thresholds are MVP heuristics and must be re-audited before v0.2 validation claims.

Source refs

services/api/scripts/cme_v0_1/resolution_risk.py

gamma_snapshot.json:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0x96df159cbd669e5182ce0f22430493f12279718e8c23bf654895ca4338899ae0