Market Trust methodologyClaim ledger
Market Trust Card v0.1polymarket24h public snapshot

what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market may be useful as an input, but it carries visible quality caveats. Cite the probability only alongside those caveats.

Use with caveats
69/100

Rating is about whether this market is currently citable as evidence, not whether the outcome will resolve yes or no.

Mid price

9.5%

Spread

1.00%

Liquidity

$123k

Depth

$121k

Pillar readings

Coherence

Measured

A same-event CME constraint fired near this market; the score discounts larger tensions.

27
/100
  • Matched MENE cluster with 29.4pp raw tension and z=34.9.
  • This is a structural-coherence reading, not a forecast of the market outcome.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

cme_signal_report_full.json:matched_cluster

Liquidity

Measured

Log-scaled liquidity and historical volume from the Gamma market snapshot.

94
/100
  • Liquidity is $123k and historical volume is $869k.
  • The score is log-scaled so a market must be meaningfully liquid, not merely nonzero.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

Orderbook depth

Measured

Top-of-book plus full-ladder depth, penalized for wide spreads.

97
/100
  • Full visible ladder depth is $121k; top-of-book depth is $356.
  • Yes-side bid/ask spread is 1.00pp.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

Capacity

Heuristic

Conservative v0.1 capacity band from visible depth; not an execution recommendation.

62
/100
  • Estimated public capacity band is $3k based on visible CLOB depth.
  • The card intentionally does not expose trade direction or executable trade construction.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

Participant quality

Pending

Market-level wallet rollups are not yet joined in v0.1.

50
/100
  • Wallet skill exists at the leaderboard/analyzer layer, but per-market participant joins are still pending.
  • This neutral 50/100 prevents the public card from implying informed-flow evidence we do not have yet.

Source refs

wallet_activity_snapshots:parser_pending

Manipulation risk

Heuristic

Conservative placeholder based on spread, volume, and depth until wallet-cluster analysis ships.

78
/100
  • v0.1 flags shallow or wide markets as easier to move, but does not claim to detect coordinated manipulation.
  • Future versions should incorporate wallet-cluster graphs, wash flags, and flow concentration.

Source refs

gamma_snapshot.json:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

Resolution reliability

Heuristic

CME resolution-risk heuristic, surfaced per market for the first time.

86
/100
  • Max resolution risk input is 0.140.
  • Thresholds are MVP heuristics and must be re-audited before v0.2 validation claims.

Source refs

services/api/scripts/cme_v0_1/resolution_risk.py

gamma_snapshot.json:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda

orderbook_snapshots.jsonl:0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda