Generated 2026-06-18 20:51 UTC (18.2 h ago; current daily snapshot) · CME V0.1 · methodology · raw JSON · audit log
Where linked markets disagree in the current UTC run
Track record immatureCoherence Signals answer one practical question: where do related markets disagree enough that a serious user should inspect the price before citing or trading it? The latest Coherent Markets Engine run (CME V0.1) checked 2,100 Polymarket markets against 266 linked-market rules, then emitted 38 signals after significance, cost, and resolution-risk gates. Modeled net EV for the surviving set is $31,119; realized PnL still waits on settlements. This snapshot is explicitly versioned as CME V0.1. The V0.2.0 walk-forward methodology is separately tracked in manifest #288046 and should only be cited for V0.2 outputs.
Track-record caveat
Related-market consistency checks stay experimental until markets resolve. Positive realized-net rate, realized PnL, and matched controls govern any performance claim.
What it is
A structural-disagreement ledger for linked markets.
What it is not
Not a profit promise or trade recommendation.
Evidence gate
Settlements and matched controls decide stronger claims.
Next build
Depth, capacity, and control-arm reporting tighten EV realism.
Study
Use this feed to find linked markets whose prices deserve review, not blind execution.
Monitor
Researcher keeps event identities, signal deltas, and daily digest context together.
Wait for outcomes
Stronger performance claims wait for resolved signals and matched controls.
Polymarket coherence-feed health (30d)
91/100· Healthy
generated 2026-06-19
178 of 150 conditions
1,888 signals
24 of 20 active days
161 matured
Score is the substrate's feed-health, not a venue-quality rating. Coverage + Volume + Activity = 90 max with the resolution gate (10 pts) deferred until the V0.2 forward pre-registration window matures. See pre-registrations.
How the run narrowed today's markets
Sample redacted signals
30 more signals in the Researcher feedLogged-out visitors see a small redacted sample. Researcher keeps event identities, the full archive, signal deltas, and trade construction in the signed-in workflow.
| Event | Type | n markets | Tension (pp) | p-value | Modeled net EV (%) | Days to res. | Modeled EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event #1 | mene | 31 | 73.90 | 1.0e-4 | 64.7% | 195 | $284 |
| Event #2 | mene | 14 | 69.40 | 1.0e-4 | 60.2% | 195 | $3,391 |
| Event #3 | mene | 5 | 64.50 | 1.0e-4 | 55.3% | 195 | $80 |
| Event #4 | mene | 20 | 61.30 | 1.0e-4 | 52.1% | 195 | $1,860 |
| Event #5 | mene | 6 | 59.35 | 1.0e-4 | 51.1% | 137 | $829 |
| Event #6 | mene | 24 | 53.40 | 1.0e-4 | 44.3% | 195 | $3,871 |
| Event #7 | mene | 15 | 47.42 | 1.0e-4 | 38.3% | 196 | $1,382 |
| Event #8 | mene | 17 | 44.90 | 1.0e-4 | 35.7% | 195 | $1,050 |
What is on this page
- Daily three-gate signal counts + funnel summary (counts only)
- Per-signal aggregate characterizations (constraint type, tension magnitude, p-value, net EV%, est PnL) — event identities redacted
- Methodology + hash-chain audit log; V0.2 outputs are tracked under manifest #288046 with public receipt not yet verified
What the Researcher tier ($99/mo) adds
- Event identities (which Polymarket markets each signal references)
- The full 38-signal feed (not just top 30)
- Trade construction (which markets to long/short, sizing, capital lockup)
- Day-over-day signal delta (which signals appeared, persisted, resolved)
- Search across the full dated archive (signals from any past day)
- Daily email digest (Resend; opt-in)
- 5-15 min delay relative to cron generation
The Coherent Markets Engine methodology is documented in full at /research/coherent-markets-engine-v1. Current snapshot version: CME V0.1. The V0.2.0 90-day walk-forward backtest is tracked in manifest #288046 (filed 2026-04-29; public receipt not yet verified; methodology frozen at commit 8616a63). The CFTC ANPRM comment on probability-axiom-feasible price coherence as a regulatory transparency standard was filed at regulations.gov on 2026-04-29 (docket CFTC-2026-0331-0001, comment tracking mok-lrhf-09it).
Audit-log row 84b9365070a9da5b… cryptographically links the daily input artifacts (gamma metadata to the published outputs. The full hash chain is at /research/cme/audit_log.jsonl and verifies via python -m services.api.scripts.cme_v0_1.provenance verify.
This work used AI tools (Claude, GPT-4) as research aids during methodology design and pre-publication review. All claims and quantitative results on this page are reproducible from the public data bundle (cron output atapps/web/public/research/cme/) with the documented seed; no claim is taken as true on the basis of an AI tool's output.