Market Trust diligence packet
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
This market may be useful as an input, but it carries visible quality caveats. Cite the probability only alongside those caveats.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Market quality
73 / 100
Measured-only 70
Evidence confidence
3/7 measured
3 heuristic | 1 pending
Source health
public 24h
Snapshot 2026-05-11
Audit chain
9938e2ad57...
mtc_v0_1
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?" as Use with caveats. Use as an archived reference only. Open a current v0.2 packet before citing the price in new work. Caveat to carry: Experimental v0.1 artifact. The rating buckets and pillar weights are not yet validated against an out-of-sample backtest. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Experimental v0.1 artifact. The rating buckets and pillar weights are not yet validated against an out-of-sample backtest.
The full diligence packet is a Researcher feature
The verdict, evidence-confidence read, memo language, and the caveat to carry above are public. The full evidence breakdown, source health, participant and integrity screen, audit chain, and the Markdown / PDF / JSON exports are available on Researcher and above.
Negative-verdict packets ("discount" / "do not cite") stay fully public, and one sample positive packet is always free.
Upgrade to ResearcherHow to use this packet and what changes the verdict
Use this packet when
- Use as an archived reference when a v0.2 packet is unavailable.
- Use to understand the older stable-card caveats before relying on a live market price.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Open or generate a v0.2 packet with current source-health, participant-quality, and integrity evidence.
- Attach resolved-outcome evidence before using this as stable v1 proof.
Live market integrity read is a Trader feature
Trader ($499/mo) unlocks an on-demand participation-concentration read on any market — HHI of wallet volume shares with a confidence interval on every estimate, plus a round-trip self-churn share, computed live from the current flow tape. Descriptive structure with receipts, not a manipulation call.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.