The Luck Share · latest reading 2026-06-09
The Luck Share is 100 percent: 0 of the 35 testable wallets in our own published top-50 Polymarket cohort clear our frozen, FDR-corrected skill bar.
Share of the testable cohort whose realized record cannot be separated from chance at our frozen, FDR-corrected bar. 0 of 35 testable wallets clear the bar; 15 of 50 had too few resolved positions to test. Of the 35, 19 read as not separable from chance, 15 are too concentrated to read as a clean edge, and 1 had a single positive interval that does not survive the correction. The 95 percent upper bound on the true clear-rate is about 9 percent (rule of three for 0 of 35).
Diagnostics on public on-chain records, not investment advice; a past read is not a forecast.
Most prediction-market trackers rank wallets by raw profit. Profit at these sample sizes does not separate skill from variance. The Luck Share is the one number that does the opposite: it takes our own published top-50 Polymarket cohort, ranked by a behavioral composite, and reports how much of it survives a real skill test. For each wallet with at least 30 resolved positions we compute the realized entry edge, whether entries resolved true more often than the price paid implied, with a bootstrap 95 percent interval and a concentration screen, then apply a false-discovery-rate correction across the cohort.
What "not separable from chance" means, precisely: the record does not clear the corrected bar at this sample size. It does NOT mean the wallet has no skill. At these resolved-position counts most records cannot distinguish skill from chance in either direction, and a profit screenshot tells you even less. That honest limit is the finding, and it is why we publish it as a recurring number rather than a leaderboard.
Reading history
| As of | Luck Share | Cleared / testable | Cohort | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 100% | 0 / 35 | 50 | Of the 35 testable, 19 read as not separable from chance, 15 are too concentrated to read as a clean edge, and 1 had a single positive interval (consistent with chance across 35 tests, about 0.9 false positives expected) that does not survive the multiple-comparisons correction and is net-negative. |
The method is frozen and version-controlled, and the per-wallet table behind this reading is public. Diagnostics on public on-chain records, not investment advice; a past read is not a forecast. The full scan, including every interval and the one uncorrected positive record, is at the top-50 skill scan. How the bar is defined: methodology. The tests we have run that came back null: negative results.
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