Market Trust diligence packet
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
Market quality
78 / 100
Interval 37-91
Evidence confidence
low
37 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
3f0f6b3b27...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
participant quality pending high unknown flow
Why this rating
Composite 78 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 20.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no_linked_cme_signal_in_window
- · absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- · cme_signal_window_days:7
- · recent_full_provenance_signals:183
50+14.3 - Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · spread is 0% of mid — tight relative to price
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
100+21.4 - Depthheuristicweight 15.0
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
- · min-side depth $5,967,328 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $5,967,328 / ask $5,967,328
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
95+20.4 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+15.0 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
- · flow_events:5
- · distinct_wallets:4
- · wash_round_trips:0
75no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+7.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0xe5bd80313b8859e3...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0xe5bd80313b8859e3f5761568ac9498866ea9d4419e4d1b6a877a9a9bd2754cb4:2026-05-26
market_id: f04096f6-5637-48cc-82db-5fd2368fe34d
venue_market_id: 0xe5bd80313b8859e3f5761568ac9498866ea9d4419e4d1b6a877a9a9bd2754cb4
resolution_source: 0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 3f0f6b3b27e6d2959851a8ac69d2d060af538d3310a39908e7080f892f3a19f1
previous_row_hash: fe2154ccd9715dc3a5d013ca204e2f2b0c3fec913da513d9b75c43e44857bcf0
source_artifact_hashes: 79a55281154d84fa61c4ea3bad44b9bac6307e2a77d3d45848f8891e97db8c07, 3d38516f4697980758b356ef1252afdc798f2736d34366d3878c5e42d04be0bb
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
4
public accounts observed
Top flow share
51.1%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-26T07:15:40.428Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
57s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
52s
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- artifact_hashes_present
- below_publishable_sample_floor
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Liquidity
weight 15 · heuristic
100 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · heuristic
95 / 100
Deep book on both sides; large orders absorb without big mid-shift.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · pending
75 / 100
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:183
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
stable
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
73-87
score range
Weight perturbation
76-79
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Liquidity is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Depth is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.