Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Composite 73 · Do not cite

1 measured4 heuristic2 pending

Coherenceheuristicweight 20.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no_linked_cme_signal_in_window
- · absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- · cme_signal_window_days:7
- · recent_full_provenance_signals:94
50+14.3
Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
95+20.4
Depthheuristicweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
- · min-side depth $39,000 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $39,000 / ask $39,000
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
75+16.1
Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+15.0
Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib
Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 99% of notional flow
- · flow_events:4
- · distinct_wallets:4
- · wash_round_trips:0
75no contrib
Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+7.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.