Market Trust diligence packet
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear hard cap: The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
Market quality
56 / 100
Interval 30-64
Evidence confidence
medium
62 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
7e3a9adb75...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
participant quality pending high unknown flow
Why this rating
Composite 56 · Do not cite
- Coherencemeasuredweight 20.0
2 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 11 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full_provenance_cme_signal_linked
- · signal_price_observations_linked
- · no_observed_checkpoint_yet
30+7.5 - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 3.5c
- · spread is 4% of mid — tight relative to price
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
80+15.0 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
- · min-side depth $17,747 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $17,747 / ask $17,747
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
75+14.1 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+13.1 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Top account flow share is 100%.
- · high_participant_concentration
0no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0xc3ff5462722d8033...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0xc3ff5462722d803352fb9e89d90c0bef29d01cb9e1c0ceae5b2ed2fd219253bd:2026-05-26
market_id: 1433ffc7-6694-4af7-af7e-bdc8f9ccfcee
venue_market_id: 0xc3ff5462722d803352fb9e89d90c0bef29d01cb9e1c0ceae5b2ed2fd219253bd
resolution_source: 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 7e3a9adb75cd124812027c4dbe2e94cc3896f2edbfb6612b5183a355c67e4c6b
previous_row_hash: 55e7391b7a1f9d644d9c9b0519cb842d69dade97bbb17e66327b830a1eb15b71
source_artifact_hashes: 2395e3f38c3206d084ca1444ed6987f65d48a7dac62853126f98dcd7cdc68a14, 235b044052c6cdc36cf1cc9541f83dc896884504d3509985db5540029bea573a
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
1
public accounts observed
Top flow share
100%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-26T01:46:45.593Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
1s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
1s
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Hard cap: The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- artifact_hashes_present
- below_publishable_sample_floor
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · measured
30 / 100
2 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 11 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Liquidity
weight 15 · measured
80 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · measured
75 / 100
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · heuristic
0 / 100
Top account flow share is 100%.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
2 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 11 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Score
30
measured evidence
Source refs
2
linked-market or CME artifacts
full provenance cme signal linked signal price observations linked no observed checkpoint yet
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
50-65
score range
Weight perturbation
55-57
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
- Integrity screen is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Integrity screen scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.