Market Trust diligence packet
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
Market quality
40 / 100
Interval 0-54
Evidence confidence
low
43 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
699ee3276e...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
participant quality pending high unknown flow
Why this rating
Composite 40 · Do not cite
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
- · missing_input
—no contrib - Liquiditypendingweight 15.0
Top-of-book unavailable; pillar pending.
- · No bid/ask snapshot in the lookback window.
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
0no contrib - Depthpendingweight 15.0
Depth data unavailable; pillar pending.
- · No depth snapshot in the lookback window.
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
0no contrib - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+35.0 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · current_account_score_join
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
- · top-3 wallets control 61% of notional flow
- · flow_events:76
- · distinct_wallets:62
- · wash_round_trips:0
85+28.3 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
15 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+16.7
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 30.0.
Caveat: 4 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x95819f1669d9a6a5...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 18, 2026 If Arsenal FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x95819f1669d9a6a5c54b19f02ffcf768ac5208b7424c161b7da046b53e707b93:2026-05-18
market_id: 597d46f1-c072-4896-a020-39487a027541
venue_market_id: 0x95819f1669d9a6a5c54b19f02ffcf768ac5208b7424c161b7da046b53e707b93
resolution_source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 699ee3276e286922b958735f48486ea7787d0aff5ba1dd3912fdb1b2ed5f1d4b
previous_row_hash: 146652465c62f2c06f9465ca9fcc731e6f69e47744c73f2bad10cb9f30d6b786
source_artifact_hashes: 99faf3f881b1ae3cc7027f552a0618276603ed027c0549d90d2f75ea6628c748, af317c6cea8c0bd578cd41ec2c4803366dc0a062745b34409bed644e5d165261
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
5.2%
2 scored accounts
Unknown flow
94.8%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
62
public accounts observed
Top flow share
32.8%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-18T21:20:53.037Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
6m
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
6m
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- No bid/ask snapshot in the lookback window.
- No depth snapshot in the lookback window.
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · pending
pending
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Liquidity
weight 15 · pending
0 / 100
Top-of-book unavailable; pillar pending.
Depth
weight 15 · pending
0 / 100
Depth data unavailable; pillar pending.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · measured
85 / 100
Flow patterns clean; no wash-trade or coordination signals.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
15 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Score
pending
pending evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
missing input
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
30-53
score range
Weight perturbation
38-42
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Depth is pending, not fully measured.
- Depth scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.