Market Trust diligence packet
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Market quality
60 / 100
Interval 25-71
Evidence confidence
low
45 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
eeffd2670b...
row hash verified
Memo language, how to use this packet, and what changes the verdict
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear hard cap: The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
Why this verdict
How the score adds up
Why this rating
Composite 60 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 20.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no_linked_cme_signal_in_window
- · absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- · cme_signal_window_days:7
- · recent_full_provenance_signals:250
50+12.5 - Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
One-sided visible ladder; direct spread unavailable, so liquidity is capped and caveated.
- · one_sided_orderbook_boundary
- · direct_bid_ask_spread_missing
- · visible $1k ladder slippage 0pp
- · scorer_version:M2
65+12.2 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
$1k visible-ladder slippage estimate is 0pp.
- · visible_ladder_slippage_measured
100+18.8 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
55+10.3 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Top account flow share is 100%.
- · high_participant_concentration
0no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x789c947a9415600d...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
Resolution-rule text is not supplied on this packet; treat that as a caveat.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2:2026-06-01
market_id: 36970709-9c0a-4ea1-aa5d-7a98804ae5f1
venue_market_id: 0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2
resolution_source: 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: eeffd2670bd9bc6cea0e221c8017ad883887cb7e61f5ce231765ecaab46f5a8c
previous_row_hash: 0c045f13709a60ec4f000e76a4e175ed7583b622cc2e2515a0d07b9768861bdf
source_artifact_hashes: f4bb2f7ad8f206fcc7854ed07f42b0f9462f43fbf644ac877868551dd56ec1b2, 34503b43478cf9fe62956b98ddac36d22c90dff89449f3a8851f087f1339fcb5
Immutable verdict archive
Verdict hash
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: 099effe90503780620a8bb9ddfa947b87fa4f4f5dd1c66e48728b346701320d5
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
1
public accounts observed
Top flow share
100%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Instrument fitness diagnostics (experimental)
2 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 4 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth durability
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No executability pillar is present on this card.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-06-01T06:06:37.967+00:00
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic executability pillar value (no current orderbook spread or depth input).
Spread and price impact
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No executability pillar is present on this card.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Missing input: The stored card has no current orderbook spread or modeled price-impact input.
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient_data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
55 / 100 (descriptive)
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending. Resolution rule text is missing on the card; that absence also caps the card verdict.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated; resolution rule text missing on card
Concentration exposure
insufficient data
insufficient_data
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Missing input: Participant-flow concentration is not measured on this card (no scored participant rollup or no top-account flow share).
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure. The resolution rule text is not stored on this card, which adds trigger-definition uncertainty on top of the structural basis risk.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-06-01T06:06:37.967Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
54s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
51s
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Hard cap: The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Liquidity
weight 15 · heuristic
65 / 100
One-sided visible ladder; direct spread unavailable, so liquidity is capped and caveated.
Depth
weight 15 · measured
100 / 100
$1k visible-ladder slippage estimate is 0pp.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
55 / 100
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · heuristic
0 / 100
Top account flow share is 100%.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:250
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
51-69
score range
Weight perturbation
58-62
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Liquidity is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.