Market Trust diligence packet
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is outside the current daily window. Show as latest archived evidence until the next fresh run lands.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
Market quality
63 / 100
Interval 28-73
Evidence confidence
low
51 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
6640c228a4...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
resolution rule text missing
Why this rating
Composite 63 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 20.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no_linked_cme_signal_in_window
- · absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- · cme_signal_window_days:7
- · recent_full_provenance_signals:250
50+14.3 - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · spread is 67% of mid — heavy slippage on size
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
85+18.2 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Thin book; orders >$1K shift mid by more than 5c.
- · min-side depth $7,871 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $7,871 / ask $7,871
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
45+9.6 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
55+11.8 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
- · insufficient_scored_notional_share
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 72% of notional flow
- · flow_events:7
- · distinct_wallets:7
- · wash_round_trips:0
75no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+7.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x789c947a9415600d...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
Resolution-rule text is not supplied on this packet; treat that as a caveat.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2:2026-05-29
market_id: 36970709-9c0a-4ea1-aa5d-7a98804ae5f1
venue_market_id: 0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2
resolution_source: 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 6640c228a430552a236171603e90804e629470db3fc01adcd6d4ccd9eebafb0c
previous_row_hash: d827dd783d3e5d585f81c393ad6c3db39e1d1b4572bf121a6ce931b26af4b373
source_artifact_hashes: 47f7edb9a80f23c37e7ea531f71454d6ae6d33cf0f9693bed1166078633ef965, bd7a4d3f60c2d85782485301531428a147ca085859074015b1bdb6c7cc200be0
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
7
public accounts observed
Top flow share
28.2%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-29T18:16:04.159Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
1m
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
1m
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- Current card issue: The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Liquidity
weight 15 · measured
85 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · measured
45 / 100
Thin book; orders >$1K shift mid by more than 5c.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
55 / 100
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · pending
75 / 100
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:250
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
58-67
score range
Weight perturbation
62-64
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Depth scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.