Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Composite 63 · Do not cite

3 measured2 heuristic2 pending

Coherenceheuristicweight 20.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no_linked_cme_signal_in_window
- · absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- · cme_signal_window_days:7
- · recent_full_provenance_signals:250
50+14.3
Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · spread is 67% of mid — heavy slippage on size
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
85+18.2
Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Thin book; orders >$1K shift mid by more than 5c.
- · min-side depth $7,871 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $7,871 / ask $7,871
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
45+9.6
Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
55+11.8
Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
- · insufficient_scored_notional_share
—no contrib
Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 72% of notional flow
- · flow_events:7
- · distinct_wallets:7
- · wash_round_trips:0
75no contrib
Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+7.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.