Market Trust diligence packet
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts.
- Clear current blocker: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- Improve robustness blocker: Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
Market quality
48 / 100
Interval 32-53
Evidence confidence
high
83 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
cacee2b8a0...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
measured pillar artifact incomplete
Why this rating
Composite 48 · Do not cite
- Coherencemeasuredweight 20.0
4 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 24 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full_provenance_cme_signal_linked
- · signal_price_observations_linked
- · no_observed_checkpoint_yet
30+6.0 - Liquiditymeasuredweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 1.0c
- · spread is 3% of mid — tight relative to price
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
100+15.0 - Depthmeasuredweight 15.0
Thin book; orders >$1K shift mid by more than 5c.
- · min-side depth $2,079 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $2,079 / ask $2,079
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
45+6.8 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+10.5 - Participant qualitymeasuredweight 20.0
5/20 accounts scored; scored notional share 88%.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · current_account_score_join
- · high_participant_concentration
- · low_edge_flow_present
2+0.4 - Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
- · 1 possible wash round-trip detected
- · top-3 wallets control 96% of notional flow
- · 95% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- · flow_events:536
45+4.5 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+5.0
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 100.0.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x11a8cc3ed975d554...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the English Premier League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official English Premier League tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47:2026-05-20
market_id: a32f2a2c-77f0-4fca-b4f5-5eccb552264e
venue_market_id: 0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47
resolution_source: 0x157Ce2d672854c848c9b79C49a8Cc6cc89176a49
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: cacee2b8a0c3e4b6afc5e10cbd51ecc0d2174ac2f14599e3a81de48f34fa46b3
previous_row_hash: 27666352179e1df41d57f44867bb580f86341d9f166a5d0751a7885b722bfe4c
source_artifact_hashes: b8260eed5c5092696de8d31e814c7a0ed22ddbbb850dd917e066c33d17883ba6, 2579c96fe329a54eb7b2dcc4a58116900ae093556c905b73f2704d0f9a1b0b23
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
88.3%
5 scored accounts
Unknown flow
11.7%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
20
public accounts observed
Top flow share
57.3%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-20T20:15:17.368Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
2m
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
2m
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Some measured pillars are missing complete source artifacts.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 1 possible wash round-trip detected
- 95% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- artifact_hashes_present
- below_publishable_sample_floor
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · measured
30 / 100
4 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 24 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Liquidity
weight 15 · measured
100 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · measured
45 / 100
Thin book; orders >$1K shift mid by more than 5c.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · measured
2 / 100
5/20 accounts scored; scored notional share 88%.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · measured
45 / 100
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
4 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 24 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Score
30
measured evidence
Source refs
4
linked-market or CME artifacts
full provenance cme signal linked signal price observations linked no observed checkpoint yet
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
39-60
score range
Weight perturbation
46-50
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Depth scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant quality scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Integrity screen scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.