Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Composite 50 · Do not cite

4 measured1 heuristic1 pending

Coherencemeasuredweight 25.0
5 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 30 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full provenance cme signal linked
- · signal price observations linked
- · no observed checkpoint yet
30+9.4
Executabilitymeasuredweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 0.2c
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · spread: scorer_version:M2
45+11.3
Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5
Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · current account score join
- · high participant concentration
- · insufficient scored accounts
- · insufficient total accounts
n/ano contrib
Integrity risk screenmeasuredweight 10.0
Heavy concentration / wash-pattern signals; treat with caution.
- · 45 possible wash round-trips detected
- · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
- · 100% of wallet/side pairs appear repeatedly
- · flow events: 978
45+5.6
Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
9 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Caveat: 1 pillar pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.