Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Composite 41 · Do not cite

2 measured2 heuristic2 pending

Coherencemeasuredweight 25.0
2 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 12 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full provenance cme signal linked
- · signal price observations linked
- · no observed checkpoint yet
30+10.7
Executabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 5.6c
- · spread: spread is 137% of mid, heavy slippage on size
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
15+4.3
Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+20.0
Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
No participant-quality rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
n/ano contrib
Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
No participant concentration rollup materialized yet.
- · missing input
n/ano contrib
Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 1 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hash missing
- · source watermarks healthy
85+6.1

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.

Caveat: 2 pillars pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.