Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

This market is not in the v0.1 daily card set yet. The v0.2 diagnostic scorecard below shows the per-pillar contribution from the latest materializer run, with visible caveats and evidence-status separation.

Why this rating

Composite 37 · Do not cite

2 measured3 heuristic1 pending

Coherencemeasuredweight 25.0
5 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 30 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full provenance cme signal linked
- · signal price observations linked
- · no observed checkpoint yet
30+9.4
Executabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Executability scored as worse-of(spread, depth) from a single orderbook snapshot; the two were merged from the former liquidity + depth pillars to stop double-counting one correlated source.
- · executability worse of spread depth
- · spread: top-of-book spread 2.0c
- · spread: pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · spread: scorer_version:M2
15+3.8
Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 20.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution metadata present manual review pending
70+17.5
Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below publishable sample floor
- · high participant concentration
- · high unknown flow share
- · insufficient scored accounts
n/ano contrib
Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Top account flow share is 93%.
- · high participant concentration
0no contrib
Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact hashes present
- · source watermarks healthy
100+6.3

How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.

Caveat: 1 pillar pending; the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.