Market Trust diligence packet
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is outside the current daily window. Show as latest archived evidence until the next fresh run lands.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear hard cap: The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
Market quality
57 / 100
Interval 21-68
Evidence confidence
low
48 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
75994e0df0...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
resolution rule text missing
Why this rating
Composite 57 · Do not cite
- Coherencemeasuredweight 20.0
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
- · full_provenance_cme_signal_linked
- · signal_price_observations_linked
- · no_observed_checkpoint_yet
30+7.5 - Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 1.1c
- · spread is 3% of mid — tight relative to price
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
100+18.8 - Depthheuristicweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
- · min-side depth $11,393 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $11,393 / ask $11,393
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
75+14.1 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
55+10.3 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Top account flow share is 100%.
- · high_participant_concentration
0no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+6.3
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 80.0.
Caveat: 1 pillar pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
Resolution-rule text is not supplied on this packet; treat that as a caveat.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad6533b01892403516b6b3f5b5fa90ed7d104c28b27e40ba00:2026-05-19
market_id: b4d0148e-742e-4fc6-83ab-bae2d04391bd
venue_market_id: 0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad6533b01892403516b6b3f5b5fa90ed7d104c28b27e40ba00
resolution_source: 0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 75994e0df0254673c9cc7e4c8f198b15bf5b19310d708b720c9a344cab91d69d
previous_row_hash: 7562775844a90d64ff6df4dfd3383df0280174c36033b1ee949a530ccd225d6b
source_artifact_hashes: bc18222e328f7de7c2196a87146b085f3c28703a0120246e625d1c63523eaa1f, 295f21c69c25b3c4a9540796282a205c7cdd8c45780a04a9220163b619307d54
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
1
public accounts observed
Top flow share
100%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-19T15:40:04.722Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
53s
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
53s
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- The market's resolution-rule text is missing.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Resolution-rule text is missing, so the card cannot receive a clean citation verdict.
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Hard cap: The integrity screen is still heuristic and scores below 60.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
External crypto baselines are identified for review but are not part of the Market Trust score.
Spot index / reference price
not integrated
Perpetual funding and basis
not integrated
Options-implied distribution
not integrated
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · measured
30 / 100
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Liquidity
weight 15 · heuristic
100 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · heuristic
75 / 100
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
55 / 100
Partial resolution metadata is present; manual rule review remains pending.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · heuristic
0 / 100
Top account flow share is 100%.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
7 full-provenance Coherent Markets Engine signals linked to this condition; 41 price-observation checkpoints recorded.
Score
30
measured evidence
Source refs
5
linked-market or CME artifacts
full provenance cme signal linked signal price observations linked no observed checkpoint yet
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
47-66
score range
Weight perturbation
55-58
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Liquidity is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Depth is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.