Market Trust diligence packet
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
One of four bands, strongest warning on the right
Too much of the trading came from wallets we cannot yet score, so participant quality is uncertain.
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Market quality
38 / 100
Interval 0-53
Evidence confidence
insufficient
34 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
bdb0cc3a70...
row hash verified
Memo language, how to use this packet, and what changes the verdict
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
Why this verdict
How the score adds up
Why this rating
Composite 38 · Do not cite
- Coherencependingweight 20.0
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
- · missing_input
—no contrib - Liquiditypendingweight 15.0
Top-of-book unavailable; pillar pending.
- · No bid/ask snapshot in the lookback window.
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
0no contrib - Depthpendingweight 15.0
Depth data unavailable; pillar pending.
- · No depth snapshot in the lookback window.
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
0no contrib - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+35.0 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · current_account_score_join
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenheuristicweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 82% of notional flow
- · flow_events:41
- · distinct_wallets:35
- · wash_round_trips:0
75+25.0 - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+16.7
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 30.0.
Caveat: 4 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x33ff7046623dc5ab...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
In the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for May 18 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arsenal FC" if Arsenal FC win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Burnley FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718:2026-05-18
market_id: 6f635c65-1e63-403c-bde7-3a08a94834f3
venue_market_id: 0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718
resolution_source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: bdb0cc3a707b24cafb0bd93673783c2c6e8f5afce7fa7f7f5f91f99c93c89a72
previous_row_hash: 56e0db7cb723fb7842db950ef00a383267667d5b1a5bae80bbd6eb78480162e5
source_artifact_hashes: 49e382fdd1b48ad98ee49c82c097890d96d0c994db36e37959b5bd47f342c291, 5f0c7d51a5f1704e7b9b10b7d38c78ae53f3b6e88aa4fcebd7ff59487604745b
Immutable verdict archive
Verdict hash
This verdict is archived as a canonical JSON object with a SHA-256 content hash. The hashed payload carries the methodology version (market_trust_card_v0_2), the canary_preview label, and a fixed boundary statement; none of them can be removed without changing the digest.
verdict archive sha256: 8fe596606c08d200abf8850bcf8aaf103a8c0bd2b07a1d850570a8804dcee311
How to verify this hash
- Fetch the canonical archive bytes: https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical
- Recompute the digest locally, for example: curl -s "https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718/archive?venue=polymarket&format=canonical" | shasum -a 256
- Compare your digest to archive_sha256 in the JSON response at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718/archive?venue=polymarket. Matching digests mean the archived verdict content is byte-for-byte unchanged.
- Cross-check card_row_hash against the stored full-card receipt at https://www.convexly.app/api/market-trust/v0.2/0x33ff7046623dc5abd8ef5623887b2cf8340638588058469c5c07cf5bb74e8718/verify?venue=polymarket.
Stored v0.2 cards are frozen scorecards: a re-score inserts a new row with a new card_id and records the prior receipt in previous_row_hash, and the filed calibration design binds Convexly to never mutate frozen card-time rows. The archive is a deterministic serialization of one stored row, so the same row always reproduces the same archive_sha256.
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0.2%
2 scored accounts
Unknown flow
99.8%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
35
public accounts observed
Top flow share
40.8%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Instrument fitness diagnostics (experimental)
2 of 6 diagnostics have a derivable observable on this stored card; 4 are insufficient_data. An insufficient_data row means the card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
Depth durability
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No executability pillar is present on this card.
Observable: Executability pillar: worse-of(top-of-book spread, modeled price impact) from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot at 2026-05-18T21:19:53.023+00:00
Missing input: The stored card has no measured or heuristic executability pillar value (no current orderbook spread or depth input).
Spread and price impact
insufficient data
insufficient_data
No executability pillar is present on this card.
Observable: Top-of-book spread (price points) and modeled price impact for a fixed notional, from the latest inspected orderbook snapshot
Missing input: The stored card has no current orderbook spread or modeled price-impact input.
Time to resolution
insufficient data
insufficient_data
Venue lifecycle status on the card: active. No end date is stored.
Observable: Venue-supplied market end date or close time stored on the card
Missing input: The v0.2 card schema does not store an end date or close time, so time to resolution cannot be derived from this card.
Resolution reliability
heuristic
70 / 100 (descriptive)
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed. Resolution rule text is stored on the card.
Observable: Resolution reliability pillar: review of the resolution source (https://www.premierleague.com/) and stored resolution rule text
Caveats: resolved-outcome dispute history is not joined on this card; the read covers resolution source and rule text only; descriptive diagnostic from operator-set scoring that is not calibrated; no interval exists for this value, so none is shown rather than fabricated
Concentration exposure
insufficient data
insufficient_data
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review.
Observable: Participant-flow concentration from the card's integrity screen: top account flow share, unknown flow share, scored notional share
Missing input: Participant-flow concentration is not measured on this card (no scored participant rollup or no top-account flow share).
Basis-risk note
descriptive
structural note
This market settles as a binary event contract: it pays a fixed amount on one discrete resolution. Offsetting a continuous exposure with a binary payoff leaves residual basis risk by construction, and binary payoffs will generally fail the ASC 815 80-125% dollar-offset band used for hedge-accounting treatment, so a position that works as an economic offset can still be carried as mark-to-market P&L. This is a structural description of the contract type, not a statement about any party's exposure.
Observable: Contract payoff structure (binary event contract) and the resolution rule text stored on the card
Caveats: structural description of the contract type, not accounting or legal advice
Published deliberately as a component table with no single combined number. Read each component against the observable it derives from; an insufficient_data row means the stored card lacks that input, not that the check passed.
These diagnostics describe observable market-quality measurements for one market. They are not investment advice, not a trading instruction, not a recommendation to take or offset any exposure with this or any market, and not a statement about any person or their positions.
instrument_fitness_diagnostics_v0_1
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-18T21:19:53.023Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
6m
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
6m
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- Current card issue: The rating moves under leave-one-out or weight-perturbation checks.
- No bid/ask snapshot in the lookback window.
- No depth snapshot in the lookback window.
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
No external baseline family is mapped for this market yet.
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Full seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · pending
pending
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Liquidity
weight 15 · pending
0 / 100
Top-of-book unavailable; pillar pending.
Depth
weight 15 · pending
0 / 100
Depth data unavailable; pillar pending.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · heuristic
75 / 100
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
5 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
Coherence evidence not linked yet.
Score
pending
pending evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
missing input
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
moves
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
28-51
score range
Weight perturbation
37-40
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity is pending, not fully measured.
- Liquidity scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Depth is pending, not fully measured.
- Depth scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.