Market Trust diligence packet
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
One-screen answer to a buyer's question: can this market price be cited, used with caveats, discounted, or ignored? The packet separates the verdict from evidence confidence, source freshness, participant quality, integrity screens, and receipts.
So what?
Monitor, but do not cite as current. The evidence is useful as an archived read until the data freshness window refreshes.
Freshness gate: Diligence packet is stale for current product claims. Treat this as archived evidence and wait for a refresh before demos or outreach.
Memo language
Convexly rates this polymarket market "Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" as Do not cite. Use only as a review target. Current-card issues must clear before this price is used as evidence. Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending. This is market diligence, not a trading instruction or proof that the market probability is correct.
Caveat to carry: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
Use this packet when
- Use to explain why this market should stay out of a citation set for now.
- Use as a recovery checklist for source freshness, coherence, depth, or evidence gaps.
Do not use it as
- A trading instruction.
- Proof that the market probability is correct.
- A manipulation accusation or person-level identity claim.
What changes the verdict
- Clear hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Clear current blocker: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Clear current blocker: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
Market quality
73 / 100
Interval 32-86
Evidence confidence
low
37 / 100
Source health
source gate passed
1 sources | dropped 0
Audit chain
9b95be8d6c...
row hash verified
Why this verdict
participant quality pending high unknown flow
Why this rating
Composite 73 · Do not cite
- Coherenceheuristicweight 20.0
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
- · no_linked_cme_signal_in_window
- · absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- · cme_signal_window_days:7
- · recent_full_provenance_signals:89
50+14.3 - Liquidityheuristicweight 15.0
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
- · top-of-book spread 0.1c
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
95+20.4 - Depthheuristicweight 15.0
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
- · min-side depth $26,181 within ±5c of mid
- · bid $26,181 / ask $26,181
- · pp-band-to-cents-band approximation in effect (depth_5pct_usd/2 per side); per-side decomposition pending substrate work
- · scorer_version:M2
75+16.1 - Resolution reliabilityheuristicweight 15.0
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
- · resolution_metadata_present_manual_review_pending
70+15.0 - Participant qualitypendingweight 20.0
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
- · below_publishable_sample_floor
- · high_participant_concentration
- · high_unknown_flow_share
- · insufficient_scored_accounts
—no contrib - Integrity risk screenpendingweight 10.0
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
- · top-3 wallets control 100% of notional flow
- · flow_events:2
- · distinct_wallets:1
- · wash_round_trips:0
75no contrib - Audit completenessmeasuredweight 5.0
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
- · artifact_hashes_present
- · source_watermarks_healthy
100+7.1
How it adds up: composite = Σ(score × weight) / Σ(weight) across measured + heuristic pillars only. Pending and data-rights-blocked pillars are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Total contributing weight = 70.0.
Caveat: 2 pillars pending — the score will recompute as the substrate fills in.
What is being rated
Market identity
Venue
polymarket
condition 0x2d3c4fc5cde6dfb4...
Category
unmapped
used for coverage and validation breadth
Market status
active
venue-provided lifecycle state when available
Resolution rule
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
card_id: mt-v02:polymarket:0x2d3c4fc5cde6dfb43448402b912e41bd4453e3f030448ed026bff8f1a0bc072e:2026-05-25
market_id: b2c3bc1d-7960-4ec5-af77-a450e500ace6
venue_market_id: 0x2d3c4fc5cde6dfb43448402b912e41bd4453e3f030448ed026bff8f1a0bc072e
resolution_source: 0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d
Receipt and export
Audit chain
Convexly stores the card payload, removes the row_hash field, canonicalizes the remaining JSON, and recomputes the SHA-256 hash. This is the bridge from a readable verdict to a buyer-reviewable audit chain.
method: market_trust_card_v0_2
row_hash: 9b95be8d6c67b435cc5b7e9d23fd37d36903c21829e82e9af8e775002938f974
previous_row_hash: b11519ed7ac5ce951f40b9b680447632c7197148ea08bea07ffbc6cd693c50e1
source_artifact_hashes: 035dab064c3296c7116e090fc36f1471ec97ca5ed2e3cd81398b29838d7343b6, bfeb0320cb7cffa8fc13594eb0c983bda8fcf969806e087388de3208dc9dd1fc
Who shaped the price
Participant and integrity screen
Participant-flow screens flagged concentration, unknown-flow, or low-edge-flow conditions for review. This is an integrity-risk screen, not a manipulation accusation and not person-level identity resolution.
Scored flow
0%
0 scored accounts
Unknown flow
100%
higher unknown flow lowers confidence
Participants
1
public accounts observed
Top flow share
100%
concentration diagnostic
Not claiming: wash-trading detection; sybil detection; manipulation-free market.
Ingest status
Source freshness window
The current ingest window is clean enough for review. This is freshness reporting, not an uptime SLA.
Latest orderbook
2026-05-25T14:56:05.065Z
most recent orderbook evidence attached to this card
Sources
1
1 healthy | 0 degraded | 0 stale | 0 failing
Dropped events
0
nonzero dropped events block current-language claims
Observed age
1m
oldest observed source watermark
Ingested age
58s
oldest ingest watermark
Canary vs v1
Validation state
Canary pipeline
blocked
Current card has source, evidence, or robustness issues to clear.
Public v1 promotion
4 public v1 validation gates still open.
Canary readiness says the current batch can be reviewed. Public v1 promotion waits for coverage, clean source-health windows, resolved outcomes, and formula-freeze evidence.
Read the promotion evidence contract- Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
What travels with the score
Top caveats
- Hard cap: Too much participant flow is unknown while participant-quality evidence is still pending.
- Current card issue: Not enough pillars on this card are measured yet.
- Current card issue: Some pillars on this card are still gathering evidence.
- absence_of_signal_not_proof_of_coherence
- artifact_hashes_present
- below_publishable_sample_floor
Validation requirements
Before stable v1
- 14 consecutive clean source-health days have not yet been observed.
- 30 current cards across 3 market categories are not yet reached.
- The scoring formula must be frozen before validation runs.
- At least one resolved-outcome row is still needed in the validation ledger.
Non-scoring provenance
External context
External politics baselines are identified for review but are not part of the Market Trust score.
Polling average or poll quality index
not integrated
Official results source
not integrated
Historical base-rate benchmark
not integrated
External context is non-scoring in v0.2. Market Trust still measures market-quality substrate, not absolute truth against outside forecasts.
Rating substrate
Seven-pillar evidence grid
Coherence
weight 20 · heuristic
50 / 100
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Liquidity
weight 15 · heuristic
95 / 100
Tight top-of-book; small to mid orders trade close to mid.
Depth
weight 15 · heuristic
75 / 100
Workable depth for retail size; institutional size will move price.
Resolution reliability
weight 15 · heuristic
70 / 100
Resolution source and rule text are present but not independently reviewed.
Participant quality
weight 20 · pending
pending
Participant-quality inputs exist but do not meet coverage floors.
Integrity risk screen
weight 10 · pending
75 / 100
Mild concentration or coordination signals; review before citing.
Audit completeness
weight 5 · measured
100 / 100
3 linked artifacts; 0 missing hashes; 0 stale/failing sources.
Linked-market consistency
Coherence block
No full-provenance CME signal is linked to this condition in the current ledger window; absence of a signal is not proof of coherence.
Score
50
heuristic evidence
Source refs
0
linked-market or CME artifacts
no linked cme signal in window absence of signal not proof of coherence cme signal window days:7 recent full provenance signals:89
Sensitivity and drivers
Robustness block
Sensitivity verdict
stable
leave-one-out and weight perturbation
Leave-one-out
68-81
score range
Weight perturbation
72-74
score range
Drivers
3
largest weighted contributors
- Coherence is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Coherence scores below 60 and needs stronger evidence before the verdict can improve.
- Liquidity is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Depth is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Resolution reliability is heuristic, not fully measured.
- Participant quality is pending, not fully measured.
Boundary of the packet
This packet is market diligence, not investment advice, not a claim of absolute truth, and not proof that any trader should buy or sell. It answers whether the market price has enough substrate to cite, monitor, discount, or ignore with receipts attached.